With pitchers and catchers reporting today, I decided to share my thoughts on the top rotations in baseball heading into 2017. Let's skip the formalities and get right into it.
#8 Toronto Blue Jays
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Aaron Sanchez | R | 3.00 | 192.0 | 3.55 | 161 |
| J.A. Happ | L | 3.18 | 195.0 | 3.96 | 163 |
| Marco Estrada | R | 3.48 | 176.0 | 4.15 | 165 |
| Marcus Stroman | R | 4.37 | 204.0 | 3.71 | 166 |
| Francisco Liriano | L | 4.69 | 163.0 | 3.98 | 168 |
Toronto was most known for their power in their recent playoff runs, but it was actually the starting rotation that was their strong suit last year. 24-year-old hurler Aaron Sanchez is quietly becoming one of the best pitchers in the game, and leads a rotation that is filled with memorable names. J.A. Happ's recent campaign is an outlier when compared to all of his other seasons, but considering how deep this rotation is, a dropoff shouldn't cripple this team. Estrada and Stroman have two very differing approaches, but both are productive enough in their roles. Estrada fends off his low velocity (avg. fastball at 88.2 mph) with solid command, while Stroman overpowers hitters at the risk of getting hit hard (0.9 HR/9). Francisco Liriano rounds off the rotation with a presence that's been in the big leagues since 2005, and while his numbers do not indicate great production, not much will be asked of him as a 5th starter.
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Clayton Kershaw | L | 1.69 | 149 | 1.80 | 172 |
| Rich Hill | L | 2.12 | 110.1 | 2.07 | 129 |
| Kenta Maeda | R | 3.48 | 175.2 | 3.58 | 179 |
| Scott Kazmir | L | 4.56 | 136.1 | 4.48 | 134 |
| Julio Urias | L | 3.39 | 77 | 3.17 | 84 |
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| Kershaw had a 15.6 K/BB ratio last year. A ratio of 5 K/BB is considered excellent. |
#6 Washington Nationals
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Max Scherzer | R | 2.96 | 228.1 | 3.24 | 284 |
| Stephen Strasburg | R | 3.60 | 147.2 | 2.92 | 183 |
| Tanner Roark | R | 2.83 | 210.0 | 3.79 | 172 |
| Gio Gonzalez | L | 4.57 | 177.1 | 3.76 | 171 |
| Joe Ross | R | 3.43 | 105.0 | 3.49 | 93 |
Before we get into the Nationals rotation, we should take a closer look at Scherzer to see how crazy it is that he's becoming more and more unhittable with each passing year. Since his 2012 season, where he amassed 231 strikeouts, Scherzer has managed to increase that number every year, and even reached his personal peak of 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings this past season! But not everyone on the Nationals' rotation is enjoying the same progress as the 2016 Cy Young Winner. Their entire year will depend on Strasburg's health. He's said that he plans to use his slider less often-the new pitch which he thinks added to his elbow issues. To add insult to injury (pun intended), Gio Gonzalez has seemed to lost his touch as well. This past year he gave up a career-high 19 home runs, and averaged a very high 1.0 big fly per 9 innings. Washington can take solace in that they get quiet, but productive outings from pitchers Tanner Roark and Joe Ross though, which is why I have them ranked so high.
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| Scherzer was phenomenal this year and managed to strike out 20 batters against his former team early in the season. |
#5 New York Mets
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Noah Syndergaard | R | 2.60 | 183.2 | 2.29 | 218 |
| Jacob deGrom | R | 3.04 | 148.0 | 3.32 | 143 |
| Steven Matz | L | 3.40 | 132.1 | 3.39 | 129 |
| Matt Harvey | R | 4.86 | 92.2 | 3.47 | 76 |
| Robert Gsellman | R | 2.42 | 44.2 | 4.22 | 42 |
It's kind of crazy to not have the Mets barely making top 5 when they may have the best trio of arms in baseball, but after that, their rotation becomes highly questionable. We all know Syndergaard and deGrom are great, but not enough love is given for Steven Matz. The lefty, whose second best pitch is a heater that reaches 95 mph, deserves more recognition than he gets. But the problems get ugly for the Mets after that. One-time prodigy Matt Harvey lost all life on his fastball and looks really bad because of it. Gsellman pitched well enough in his short sample size, but that does not really tell us much of what to expect over a full season.
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| The Mets say that command is the issue for Harvey, but the eye test tells us that there's much more. Fortunately for him, there shouldn't be much pressure to return to ace form as a #4 pitcher on the team. |
#4 San Francisco
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Madison Bumgarner | L | 2.74 | 226.2 | 3.24 | 251 |
| Johnny Cueto | R | 2.79 | 219.2 | 2.95 | 198 |
| Jeff Samardzija | R | 3.81 | 203.1 | 3.85 | 167 |
| Matt Moore | L | 4.08 | 198.1 | 3.53 | 178 |
| Matt Cain | L | 5.64 | 89.1 | 5.14 | 72 |
The biggest reason I have the Giants ranked in the top 4 rotations in the league is because of one stat that I value a lot: innings pitched. San Francisco has a rotation that eats innings like no other, as their #1-4 pitchers were all either above the 200 inning mark, or right around that figure. Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner have been consistently at the top of the N.L. for years now. On top of that, Jeff Samardzija transformed his game when he added a curveball during the season, so he didn't have to rely on "hard" pitches all the time. After initially finding a hard time to implement the breaking ball, the pitch eventually helped him so much that he actually became the Giants' best pitcher in the months of August and September. Matt Moore was also a nice addition at the halfway point, and looks like he's gotten his full strength back after having Tommy John surgery in 2014. The only real weakness here is the 5th spot, which I fully expect to be filled by left-handed prospect Ty Blach. It's become very apparent that Matt Cain is not whom he used to be and cannot be expected to start anymore.
#3 Cleveland Indians
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Corey Kluber | R | 3.14 | 215.0 | 3.26 | 227 |
| Carlos Carrasco | R | 3.32 | 146.1 | 3.72 | 150 |
| Danny Salazar | R | 3.87 | 137.1 | 3.74 | 161 |
| Trevor Bauer | R | 4.26 | 190.0 | 3.99 | 168 |
| Josh Tomlin | R | 4.40 | 174.0 | 4.88 | 118 |
I feel like I'm underrating the Indians' starters after their tremendous playoff run without Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, but it's hard to argue with the numbers. The ERAs here are slightly misleading though, since the Indians play in a division filled with ballparks that favor hitters. However, something this team does excel in is piling up strikeouts. The top three pitchers all averaged well over a strikeout an inning, and could probably amass over 600 as a group if everyone was healthy for an entire year. Although it'd be hard to tell by just looking at the numbers, Trevor Bauer showed a lot of progress this past year. Trevor's talents have never been doubted, and for good reason too, as he's a power pitcher with a surplus of secondary pitches to work with. It's unfortunate that he couldn't showcase his full capabilities in the playoffs because of the drone accident. Josh Tomlin completes the rotation with his impeccable control. You'll hardly ever see him overpower hitters, but you'll see him walk batters on an even rarer occasions.
#2 Boston Red Sox
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Chris Sale | L | 3.34 | 226.2 | 3.46 | 233 |
| David Price | L | 3.99 | 230.0 | 3.60 | 228 |
| Rick Porcello | R | 3.15 | 223.0 | 3.40 | 189 |
| Drew Pomeranz | L | 3.32 | 170.2 | 3.80 | 186 |
| Steven Wright | R | 3.33 | 156.2 | 3.77 | 127 |
Even though the Sox got Chris Sale, I don't think that means they have the best rotation. David Price is hitting a decline, which is fair to expect when looking at his enormous body of work (1671.2 IPs), and I still have to question the back end of their rotation more than I have to for Chicago and maybe even Cleveland. I say this because Drew Pomeranz had a rough time in the half-season he spent in Boston, but they liked him enough to give him a one-year contract anyways. Steven Wright is also a little bit of a head-scratcher too, as he's 31 but only had his first full season last year. He pitched well, but there must be a reason he didn't have a prolonged stay in the MLB at an earlier age. Regardless, picking up an ace like Chris Sale is not to be underestimated. Plus Porcello can be promoted to the second spot, and Price could move down to the third slot, which would be a formidable #1-3 for all opponents.
#1 Chicago Cubs
| Throws | ERA | IP | FIP | K | |
| Jon Lester | L | 2.44 | 202.2 | 3.41 | 197 |
| Jake Arrieta | R | 3.10 | 197.1 | 3.52 | 190 |
| Kyle Hendricks | R | 2.13 | 190.0 | 3.20 | 170 |
| John Lackey | R | 3.35 | 188.1 | 3.81 | 180 |
| Mike Montgomery | L | 2.52 | 100.0 | 4.74 | 92 |
The defending world champions had a starting rotation and infield that paced the league. Their rotation is headlined by Jon Lester, a postseason hero who was a Cy Young Finalist this year, Hendricks, who had a grand time deceiving the entire league with his changeup, and Jake Arrieta, who looked invincible for much of the past two years. This rotation is so impressive that you can argue that the 2015 Cy Young winner is the team's third best pitcher! What makes me put Chicago at the top of the list though, is the fact that even their back-end starters gave them great value. That started with John Lackey, who enjoyed yet another really successful year at an old age, and Mike Montgomery, who has shown that he can be productive from out of the bullpen and starting rotation (granted he only started 5 games). The Chicago Cubs did lose Jason Hammel in free agency though, but they may not even miss him since their starting rotation already so great.
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