This past weekend I took a road trip down to beautiful Isla Vista, the location of UC Santa Barbara, to visit friends, see the campus, and experience the infamous party scene known as Deltopia. And while it started out great Friday evening and Saturday through the afternoon, night time was quite the comedown. Riots broke out in the streets and I experienced tear gas trying to escape the havoc I hadn't even been that close to. In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the Indiana Pacers' season; it started out terrific, with a defense on a historic pace, a stunning home record, and early MVP talk for a rising player in Paul George. But just as the pundits marked them as title favorites, all hell broke loose. The demise has been incredible to watch, partially because it's so hard to understand how a team that started out so well could experience a demise so large, especially considering there have been no major injuries, coaching turmoil, or PR controversies. What can we make of all this? A few things:
1) Paul George Is Not A Superstar
At least not yet. He was put high on a pedestal last year after his excellent playoff series against the Heat, where he showed flashes of what he can be, but that isn't the real Paul George. Yes, he's only 23, is sure to make improvements in his game, and remains one of the elite defensive wings in the league, but his offensive brilliance in the beginning of the season was a mirage. George was hitting incredibly difficult shots at an unsustainable clip, and defenses seem to have figured him out in the scouting report. Check out this handy chart courtesy of Grantland.
It seems as though opposing defenders have taken him away from his favorite spot on the floor, just off the right block, and pushed him to the left side of the floor, where he's been settling for far too many mid-range jumpers. What's more troubling is his decline in field goal percentage around the rim. Yes, they are contested, but a player with as much athletic ability as George should not be shooting 46% on lay-ups.
2) Their Best Playmaker Is Lance Stephenson
Uh, that's a problem. Stephenson can make good passes at times, and he's filled up the box score to the point where he got well deserved all-star consideration, but he's a shooting guard who looks for his own shot first and seems to be slightly caught up in accumulating numbers. This seems to be especially true when he's having an off night. Not having a point guard to distribute the ball has hurt this team. George Hill can make spot up threes and handle the rock quite well, but he's not capable of dish and drives, or even a simple pick and roll. With Hill simply not being capable of doing more, Stephenson immature and moody, and George struggling with his shot and being inconsistent, the Pacers offense is incredibly basic, stagnant, and unimaginative.
3) Larry Bird Has Made Some Bad Trades
Yes, I said it. Bird and the rest of Indiana's front office has been terrific and is the reason they have such a great young core, but they've also had their fair share of strikeouts, the most recent being the Danny Granger/Evan Turner swap, which has worked out terribly for the Pacers. Turner has a horrific total +/- of -79 since joining Indiana. The Luis Scola trade has also backfired; his play has diminished since his days in Houston while the players he was traded for, Gerald Green and Miles Plumlee, have thrived with the Phoenix Suns (I should know, both were on my fantasy team). The final questionable trade was made a while back but has probably had the biggest impact: George Hill for Kawhi Leonard. The Pacers, who drafted him 15th overall, traded him to the Spurs for Hill, who Gregg Popovich had purposefully been over-praising as a star point guard for months. Very sly, Pop.
4) They Have Chemistry Issues
When one of your most important players calls out teammates publicly, you know it's bad. But Roy Hibbert calling anonymous players selfish is yesterday's news. Last night against Milwaukee, head coach Frank Vogel benched the starting five. Is he trying to cram in some rest for them this late into the season after desperately trying to go after the #1 seed earlier in the year? Is he trying to send a message to Larry Bird that he can turn this around and act tough with these guys? Does he think his bench is surely capable of beating the worst team in basketball that's tanking away it's season? (the Pacers somehow only won this game by two) Is he simply sending a message to his starters that they need to get their act together quickly? It's probably a combination of all of these things but it's not a good sign. Players are looking toward their star (Paul George) for leadership, but he's only 23, and lost his mentor, Danny Granger. Boy, maybe a veteran presence in the locker room is a slightly underappreciated thing. Kudos to you, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins! (although I still don't know why either of you manage to get so much playing time)
So where does this leave the Pacers come playoff time? Hard to tell. But rest assured, if they started today, the Heat, Nets, and Bulls would have their way with Indiana. Maybe George can find his shot, maybe Turner can turn the corner (no pun intended), and the Pacers can rally around the media scrutiny and translate it into wins, but their time is running out.
1) Paul George Is Not A Superstar
At least not yet. He was put high on a pedestal last year after his excellent playoff series against the Heat, where he showed flashes of what he can be, but that isn't the real Paul George. Yes, he's only 23, is sure to make improvements in his game, and remains one of the elite defensive wings in the league, but his offensive brilliance in the beginning of the season was a mirage. George was hitting incredibly difficult shots at an unsustainable clip, and defenses seem to have figured him out in the scouting report. Check out this handy chart courtesy of Grantland.
2) Their Best Playmaker Is Lance Stephenson
Uh, that's a problem. Stephenson can make good passes at times, and he's filled up the box score to the point where he got well deserved all-star consideration, but he's a shooting guard who looks for his own shot first and seems to be slightly caught up in accumulating numbers. This seems to be especially true when he's having an off night. Not having a point guard to distribute the ball has hurt this team. George Hill can make spot up threes and handle the rock quite well, but he's not capable of dish and drives, or even a simple pick and roll. With Hill simply not being capable of doing more, Stephenson immature and moody, and George struggling with his shot and being inconsistent, the Pacers offense is incredibly basic, stagnant, and unimaginative.
Stephenson Being Stephenson
3) Larry Bird Has Made Some Bad Trades
Yes, I said it. Bird and the rest of Indiana's front office has been terrific and is the reason they have such a great young core, but they've also had their fair share of strikeouts, the most recent being the Danny Granger/Evan Turner swap, which has worked out terribly for the Pacers. Turner has a horrific total +/- of -79 since joining Indiana. The Luis Scola trade has also backfired; his play has diminished since his days in Houston while the players he was traded for, Gerald Green and Miles Plumlee, have thrived with the Phoenix Suns (I should know, both were on my fantasy team). The final questionable trade was made a while back but has probably had the biggest impact: George Hill for Kawhi Leonard. The Pacers, who drafted him 15th overall, traded him to the Spurs for Hill, who Gregg Popovich had purposefully been over-praising as a star point guard for months. Very sly, Pop.
When one of your most important players calls out teammates publicly, you know it's bad. But Roy Hibbert calling anonymous players selfish is yesterday's news. Last night against Milwaukee, head coach Frank Vogel benched the starting five. Is he trying to cram in some rest for them this late into the season after desperately trying to go after the #1 seed earlier in the year? Is he trying to send a message to Larry Bird that he can turn this around and act tough with these guys? Does he think his bench is surely capable of beating the worst team in basketball that's tanking away it's season? (the Pacers somehow only won this game by two) Is he simply sending a message to his starters that they need to get their act together quickly? It's probably a combination of all of these things but it's not a good sign. Players are looking toward their star (Paul George) for leadership, but he's only 23, and lost his mentor, Danny Granger. Boy, maybe a veteran presence in the locker room is a slightly underappreciated thing. Kudos to you, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins! (although I still don't know why either of you manage to get so much playing time)
So where does this leave the Pacers come playoff time? Hard to tell. But rest assured, if they started today, the Heat, Nets, and Bulls would have their way with Indiana. Maybe George can find his shot, maybe Turner can turn the corner (no pun intended), and the Pacers can rally around the media scrutiny and translate it into wins, but their time is running out.
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