It's that time of year again. March Madness is back, and one of the coolest billionaires in the world, Warren Buffett, is in a giving mood. What are the keys to filling out the first ever perfect bracket and winning a billion dollars? We have no idea! But we do think we have some tips that can help you create a bracket that's better than your friends. The cool thing about this tournament is that almost anyone can be upset, so don't be fooled into thinking these helpful hints will have a 100% success rate. However, there are certain trends, facts, and odds that shouldn't be ignored when you make your selections. You only have until Thursday to fill a bracket out and before this guide becomes useless, so let's get to it.
Tip #1: Ignore the 16 Seeds
Don't try to be the guy who picks a 16 seed to upset the 1 seed, because it's never happened (1 Seeds are 116-0). True, Gonzaga faced a close call in last year's tournament, but let's look at this year's field: Florida has won 25 games in a row, Virginia has a defense that holds opponents to 55 a game, Wichita State is undefeated and could face a team that has a losing record, and Arizona has an NBA lottery pick in its starting lineup. Consider these 4 match-ups the only guarantees you have in your bracket and move on.
Tip #2: Don't Sleep on Wisconsin
Wisconsin's beaten two of the number 1 seeds, Florida and Virginia, a 2 seed, Michigan, and one of the favorites to win it all, Michigan State. They run a terrific offense that can light it up from three, play well away from home, don't commit turnovers, and have a good coach in Bo Ryan. They also have a favorable draw which gives them a terrific shot at reaching at least the Elite Eight. If Wisconsin can play more consistently, they could be really dangerous.
Tip #3: Health is a Huge Factor
You may wonder why so many ESPN analysts are picking Michigan State, a 4 seed, to win it all. It's because the regular season doesn't tell the whole story for the Spartans. Tom Izzo's squad, which entered the season as the number 2 team in the country, has faced multiple injuries, but is finally getting healthy and just dominated in the Big Ten Conference Championship. Meanwhile, Kansas will be without starting center, Joel Embiid, until the Sweet Sixteen. Arizona, who made a lengthy run at an undefeated season and was the number 1 team in the nation for several weeks, is 9-4 since losing small forward Brandon Ashley to injury, but is still a terrific team with a ferocious defense.
#Tip 4: Pick a 12 Seed
There are bound to be upsets amongst other seeds as well, but this year, the 5 seeds looks particularly vulnerable. Harvard is playing well and looks better than the team that upset New Mexico last year. They could take down a Cincinnati team that is incredibly inconsistent on offense. Stephen F. Austin is another team with all the tools to take down a giant: good offensive rebounding, three point shooting, and the ability to force turnovers. If they can figure out how to play against VCU's stifling press defense, they could shock the Rams. North Dakota State has a good chance against Oklahoma, who has faltered down the stretch, has a mediocre defense, and has performed poorly against top competition. St. Louis is another team that is sputtering as of late, which gives North Carolina State a great chance at taking them down.
#Tip 5: Choose Peaking Over Seeding
There are bound to be upsets amongst other seeds as well, but this year, the 5 seeds looks particularly vulnerable. Harvard is playing well and looks better than the team that upset New Mexico last year. They could take down a Cincinnati team that is incredibly inconsistent on offense. Stephen F. Austin is another team with all the tools to take down a giant: good offensive rebounding, three point shooting, and the ability to force turnovers. If they can figure out how to play against VCU's stifling press defense, they could shock the Rams. North Dakota State has a good chance against Oklahoma, who has faltered down the stretch, has a mediocre defense, and has performed poorly against top competition. St. Louis is another team that is sputtering as of late, which gives North Carolina State a great chance at taking them down.
#Tip 5: Choose Peaking Over Seeding
Speaking of teams' performances down the stretch, it's crucial when making your selections. This applies to teams like Michigan State, a 4 seed, who we talked about earlier, because they're finally healthy and playing really well at the right time. Another 4 seed that's starting to get hot at the right time is the tournament's defending champion, Louisville, who still has its star player from last season, Russ Smith, and one of the best coaches in the nation, Rick Pitino. Another star player is Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart. Oklahoma State is a 9 seed, but Smart missed a few games due to suspension in the regular season and the team has played considerably better since his return.
#Tip 6: Cinderella's Only Go So Far
Sure, the great underdog story everyone can't stop talking about makes a deep run every year, but how often do they actually win? They don't. A top 4 seed has won the championship every year since 1989, and more than half the time, it has been a number 1 seed cutting down the nets. Furthermore, this year simply doesn't have as many giant killers. While the amount of upsets will remain high, it seems less likely we'll see an underdog go on a deep run. So although you should probably pick a 10 seed, an 11 seed, and possibly even two 12 seeds to make noise early on, don't make a habit of picking your sleeper to advance multiple rounds.
#Tip 7: [???????] Wins It All
They have a favorable draw, performed extremely well down the stretch, and happen to be a number 1 seed. They were the only team which was in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don't have a glaring weakness. They also have experience, with four seniors in their starting lineup. Nate Silver gives them the second best odds to win the championship behind Louisville, but gives this team better odds to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four, and the Championship Game. Their coach has won two national championships with this very program already. And the team happens to be the Florida Gators.
Hopefully, this steers you in the right direction. If it does, you're welcome. If not, blame Aditya Sriwasth for allowing me to write this column. So who are your picks to reach the Final Four? Let us know in the comments below and good luck with your brackets!
#Tip 6: Cinderella's Only Go So Far
Sure, the great underdog story everyone can't stop talking about makes a deep run every year, but how often do they actually win? They don't. A top 4 seed has won the championship every year since 1989, and more than half the time, it has been a number 1 seed cutting down the nets. Furthermore, this year simply doesn't have as many giant killers. While the amount of upsets will remain high, it seems less likely we'll see an underdog go on a deep run. So although you should probably pick a 10 seed, an 11 seed, and possibly even two 12 seeds to make noise early on, don't make a habit of picking your sleeper to advance multiple rounds.
#Tip 7: [???????] Wins It All
They have a favorable draw, performed extremely well down the stretch, and happen to be a number 1 seed. They were the only team which was in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don't have a glaring weakness. They also have experience, with four seniors in their starting lineup. Nate Silver gives them the second best odds to win the championship behind Louisville, but gives this team better odds to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four, and the Championship Game. Their coach has won two national championships with this very program already. And the team happens to be the Florida Gators.
Hopefully, this steers you in the right direction. If it does, you're welcome. If not, blame Aditya Sriwasth for allowing me to write this column. So who are your picks to reach the Final Four? Let us know in the comments below and good luck with your brackets!
0 comments:
Post a Comment