If you're reading this article you probably heard the rhetoric thousands of times by now. Statements like "There are plenty of premier pitchers available in the free agent market" or "The San Francisco Giants are in deep need of an ace to pair along with Madison Bumgarner" are probably ingrained in your head. As of now, it seems like most Giants fans want their favorite team to land David Price, and media sources predict them to acquire Jordan Zimmerman. I on the other hand, firmly believe Greinke should be at the top of the Giants' wishlist and I'll try my best to explain my rationale.
* I otherwise take pride in my objectivity when writing articles, but this one was written from the perspective of a Giants fan.
A. Pitching Style Comparisons
1. Fastball
To premise my argument, I think we should learn about Zack Grienke a little more. He started his career as a power pitcher with a dangerous fastball that would routinely hit the 93-94 mph range. Since then, his heater has taken a very slight dip to hover around the 92 mph mark, but Grienke has since matured his game and was still able to reach 200+ Ks while maintaining high strikeout rates (9.2 and 8.1 SO9) in each of the last two season. The scary part is that this isn't even the strongest aspect of Grienke's game, something I'll expand on in a future point.
All of these pitchers are looking to land a lengthy contract that will last until their late 30s age-wise. This assures us that the pitchers will undergo a drop in velocity at some point in their next tenure, even if it's only minuscule. Zack Grienke already passed that test and actually ended up succeeding to a greater degree. With David Price though, we have yet to see what happens if his fastball starts to dwindle. All of Price's pitches are complimented by his mid-90s fastball; and he has been immaculate because of that, to the tune of nearly 500 strikeouts in the last two years combined. Price is obviously a very talented pitcher and I'm not suggesting that he'll struggle in a few years, but it's something to consider any time you're giving a pitcher a long contract. What happens if the pitcher starts to lose their ability to overpower hitters? This same question leads to a red flag for Jordan Zimmerman. Although he's only 29, his fastball has already become far more hittable with just a very minor drop in velocity (93.7 to 93.0). This caused his ERA and home run rate to inflate. His 1.1 HR9 that he held this previous season is double that of his free agent counterparts. The problem became especially problematic for Zimmerman after the All-Star break. While pitching at AT&T Park will help in this department, it is an alarming problem for an ace to be dealing with at such a young age. This is especially true in the case for Zimmerman as he doesn't have that many pitches to work with. His command is still phenomenal, but I have some serious questions associated with this pitcher.
2. Secondary Pitches
You don't become a top tier pitcher like these guys unless your secondary pitches are good, but this also highlights the major difference between the aforementioned players. Zimmerman falls behind the other two as he simply doesn't have enough pitches to mix. This, coupled with the previous point about fastballs, makes me believe that Zimmerman's game could face a sharp decline. As a Giants fan pI've witnessed this with Matt Cain (although his drop-off has more to do with injury), and I wouldn't want my team to be facing the same problem with two starting pitchers. Cain and Zimmerman still have a chance to pitch well, but they'll have more difficulty in doing so than the other two when age catches up to them.
If you look at David Price, he separates himself with excellent control over all the pitches at his disposal: change-up, curveball, cutter, and sinker. Top this off with the unpredictable manner in which he uses these pitches, and one should expect him to perform well as the years progress.
But Zack Greinke's secondary pitches are just on another level altogether. So much so, that more people fear Geinke's prowess as a sinker baller than his ability to overpower and strikeout hitters. Just wrap your head around that: a pitcher who racks up around 200 strikeouts a year is most known for his ability to force batters into hitting weak ground balls. The season he just enjoyed was pretty much perfect from someone of that background as he induced a lot of soft contact and never missed high in the strike zone. Not only that, but his sequencing is second-to-none. The best part of Greinke's game is that it's the kind of style that lasts a long time. Think Tim Hudson, who pitched well until he was 39 years old. The two share similar strengths and there's no reason to think that Greinke won't taste that kind of success. This should remove all doubt that Greinke's age should bring, as he is only a few years older than Price and Zimmerman, but has a pitching style that should age better than either of the two.
B. Familiarity
The transition from American League to National League isn't something that can be simply overlooked. "Small ball" is more prominent in the National League which puts a greater emphasis on a pitcher's ability to field. To put into context, take a look at Jon Lester, who was the best pitcher of last year's free agent crop. His production took a noteworthy hit as teams took advantage of his poor pickoff move and inability to field bunts, which often led to free bases. Although I'm unaware of how strong Price is in those facets of the game, it is something that should be considered and closely looked at. Zimmerman has been in the N.L. his entire career so this is not an issue for him, but Zack Greinke has the upper hand amongst the three in this area as Greinke won the Gold Glove in 2014 and is a favorite to win this year's fielding award.
The pitchers also have to be able to handle a bat in the National League. While Price's natural athleticism makes me believe that he'll do well in a batter's box, Greinke is either the best* or second best hitting pitcher in the game. This isn't a big deal since pitchers only bat once every five games, but it is a nice plus.
*I have Madison Bumgarner ranked as the best hitting pitcher because of his power, and Zack Greinke second in that regard. Zack's line drive rate is astoundingly high for a pitcher.
Another factor, that plays a significant role in my mind, is that Zack Greinke also has additional familiarity with the rest of the National League West. This is important because it means Greinke knows how to pitch to division rivals who show up in the schedule more often.
* I otherwise take pride in my objectivity when writing articles, but this one was written from the perspective of a Giants fan.
A. Pitching Style Comparisons
1. Fastball
To premise my argument, I think we should learn about Zack Grienke a little more. He started his career as a power pitcher with a dangerous fastball that would routinely hit the 93-94 mph range. Since then, his heater has taken a very slight dip to hover around the 92 mph mark, but Grienke has since matured his game and was still able to reach 200+ Ks while maintaining high strikeout rates (9.2 and 8.1 SO9) in each of the last two season. The scary part is that this isn't even the strongest aspect of Grienke's game, something I'll expand on in a future point.
All of these pitchers are looking to land a lengthy contract that will last until their late 30s age-wise. This assures us that the pitchers will undergo a drop in velocity at some point in their next tenure, even if it's only minuscule. Zack Grienke already passed that test and actually ended up succeeding to a greater degree. With David Price though, we have yet to see what happens if his fastball starts to dwindle. All of Price's pitches are complimented by his mid-90s fastball; and he has been immaculate because of that, to the tune of nearly 500 strikeouts in the last two years combined. Price is obviously a very talented pitcher and I'm not suggesting that he'll struggle in a few years, but it's something to consider any time you're giving a pitcher a long contract. What happens if the pitcher starts to lose their ability to overpower hitters? This same question leads to a red flag for Jordan Zimmerman. Although he's only 29, his fastball has already become far more hittable with just a very minor drop in velocity (93.7 to 93.0). This caused his ERA and home run rate to inflate. His 1.1 HR9 that he held this previous season is double that of his free agent counterparts. The problem became especially problematic for Zimmerman after the All-Star break. While pitching at AT&T Park will help in this department, it is an alarming problem for an ace to be dealing with at such a young age. This is especially true in the case for Zimmerman as he doesn't have that many pitches to work with. His command is still phenomenal, but I have some serious questions associated with this pitcher.
2. Secondary Pitches
You don't become a top tier pitcher like these guys unless your secondary pitches are good, but this also highlights the major difference between the aforementioned players. Zimmerman falls behind the other two as he simply doesn't have enough pitches to mix. This, coupled with the previous point about fastballs, makes me believe that Zimmerman's game could face a sharp decline. As a Giants fan pI've witnessed this with Matt Cain (although his drop-off has more to do with injury), and I wouldn't want my team to be facing the same problem with two starting pitchers. Cain and Zimmerman still have a chance to pitch well, but they'll have more difficulty in doing so than the other two when age catches up to them.
If you look at David Price, he separates himself with excellent control over all the pitches at his disposal: change-up, curveball, cutter, and sinker. Top this off with the unpredictable manner in which he uses these pitches, and one should expect him to perform well as the years progress.
But Zack Greinke's secondary pitches are just on another level altogether. So much so, that more people fear Geinke's prowess as a sinker baller than his ability to overpower and strikeout hitters. Just wrap your head around that: a pitcher who racks up around 200 strikeouts a year is most known for his ability to force batters into hitting weak ground balls. The season he just enjoyed was pretty much perfect from someone of that background as he induced a lot of soft contact and never missed high in the strike zone. Not only that, but his sequencing is second-to-none. The best part of Greinke's game is that it's the kind of style that lasts a long time. Think Tim Hudson, who pitched well until he was 39 years old. The two share similar strengths and there's no reason to think that Greinke won't taste that kind of success. This should remove all doubt that Greinke's age should bring, as he is only a few years older than Price and Zimmerman, but has a pitching style that should age better than either of the two.
B. Familiarity
The transition from American League to National League isn't something that can be simply overlooked. "Small ball" is more prominent in the National League which puts a greater emphasis on a pitcher's ability to field. To put into context, take a look at Jon Lester, who was the best pitcher of last year's free agent crop. His production took a noteworthy hit as teams took advantage of his poor pickoff move and inability to field bunts, which often led to free bases. Although I'm unaware of how strong Price is in those facets of the game, it is something that should be considered and closely looked at. Zimmerman has been in the N.L. his entire career so this is not an issue for him, but Zack Greinke has the upper hand amongst the three in this area as Greinke won the Gold Glove in 2014 and is a favorite to win this year's fielding award.
The pitchers also have to be able to handle a bat in the National League. While Price's natural athleticism makes me believe that he'll do well in a batter's box, Greinke is either the best* or second best hitting pitcher in the game. This isn't a big deal since pitchers only bat once every five games, but it is a nice plus.
*I have Madison Bumgarner ranked as the best hitting pitcher because of his power, and Zack Greinke second in that regard. Zack's line drive rate is astoundingly high for a pitcher.
Another factor, that plays a significant role in my mind, is that Zack Greinke also has additional familiarity with the rest of the National League West. This is important because it means Greinke knows how to pitch to division rivals who show up in the schedule more often.
 |
| Zack Greinke has thrived against other teams in the N.L. West, which makes him the best fit for the Giants. |
C. The Los Angeles Dodgers
If the San Francisco Giants land Zack Greinke, and the Chicago Cubs are the favorites to sign David Price, where does that leave the Los Angeles Dodgers? The Dodgers don't have pitching depth to begin with, and the loss of Greinke, plus missing out on the other top pitcher on the market would be disastrous for them. Brett Anderson, their number three pitcher who filled that role nicely, is also a free agent. Pile on the injuries to Ryu and McCarthy and the Dodgers' rotation would look really dire. I'm certain they'll throw out all kinds of money to other available pitchers, and possibly trade Puig in order to shore up that front. But can you imagine the blow it would be to the team if Zack Greinke is won over by their biggest rivals?
D. Conclusion
I would be ecstatic if the Giants acquire David Price, though most sources suggest that he wants to go to the Chicago Cubs to play for his former manager Joe Maddon. It would probably take more money to convince him to sign with San Francisco, which can be problematic for a team that already has a high payroll. Jordan Zimmerman would be a good fit and is definitely talented, but I do have my questions with him. Zimmerman is going to demand a hefty contract, and by the third or fourth year, his worth could already start declining. All things considered, signing Zack Greinke seems to yield the most positives.
Side Note:
If the Giants are unable to land either Greinke or Price, I think they should try to go after Jason Heyward, for a pile of reasons that I may discuss in another article depending on how much time I have.
0 comments:
Post a Comment