Alvarez vs. Cotto: Preview and Prediction

When I heard this fight was officially announced, I was bouncing off the walls. Barring the possibility of a Mayweather-Pacquiao rematch, this is the biggest fight that can happen in boxing today. The rivalry between Mexico and Puerto Rico may be the biggest between any two boxing nations. As always, I am going to do a quick rundown about the history of the two fighters, what advantages they have going into the ring, as well as my overall prediction for who will win the fight. 

Miguel Cotto (40-4)

Cotto landing a vicious left hook against Sergio Martinez

Miguel Cotto is the one of the great Puerto Rican fighter of all time, and that is saying a whole lot. Miguel Cotto will go down in history as one of the greatest fighters of this generation, and will undoubtedly be a future hall of fame boxer.

Cotto, 35, has rediscovered his prime, thanks largely to his new trainer - Freddy Roach.  If the name sounds familiar, it is because he is the trainer of Manny Pacquiao.  Roach is a seven time trainer of the year recipient, and his work with Cotto proves why he deserves that recognition.  Cotto, who is 35 old, went through a huge drop off in his career about 3 years ago.  He lost many fights, and to be honest, he just was not any good. Freddy Roach rejuvenated his career, and made him look like he was 28 years old again in his last 4 fights.

Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez (45-1-1)

Canelo unloads a Right Uppercut against Austin Trout

Saul Canelo Alvarez is the pride of Mexico, one of the biggest boxing nations in the world.  His only loss was delivered to him by the great Floyd Mayweather Jr., when Canelo was only 22 years old. Although he lost, just think about that a bit.  This guy was so good, that he got a chance with the pound for pound king, at 22 years old, and he deserved it.

Alvarez is a true Mexican warrior. His last fight was against James Kirkland on May 12th, 2015, literally one week after the "sorefest" that was Mayweather-Pacquiao. That bout is the most exciting fight I have ever seen. If you watched Mayweather-Pacquiao and were expect two people to just wail on each other, you should have waited one more week and watched the Canelo-Kirkland fight. I still watch it every once in a while, and am never disappointed. I'll embed the video here just so you all can see what I'm talking about.

Why Canelo will win:

1. Size - Canelo is naturally bigger than Cotto. Both of these fighters like moving forward, and when two fighters who like moving forward meet, I have to give the advantage to the bigger fighter. Even if Cotto blocks a lot of Canelo's punches, he will still feel the power, and that will cause him to hesitate to step in range and to let his hands go.  I see Cotto throwing less as the fight goes on fearing Canelo's power, allowing Canelo to win rounds. Cotto is going to have to take chances, but at 35 years old, it is a lot more difficult to be willing to take that punishment. 
2. Body punches - I’m going to put this in both fighter’s lists because both often do work to the body that will help pay dividends later on in the fight.  
3. Power - This goes with size, but Canelo’s power simply outdoes Cotto’s. If Cotto stays in front of Canelo too much, Canelo’s power and combination punching will destroy Cotto.
4. Youth - Canelo, 25, is ten years younger than Cotto. That difference in age will benefit Canelo. Cotto will have to take some chances to land his punches, but to be willing to take those chances and to take that punishment at 35 years old will be extremely tough for Cotto.

Why Cotto will win:

1. Experience - Cotto’s resume is much better than Canelo’s.  He has fought elite level fighters throughout his career, whereas Canelo doesn’t have as many big wins over big names.  The experience Cotto has in big fights will give him an edge.
2. Body punches - Cotto’s famous left hook is to be feared, and if he gets some good shots to Canelo’s body, they will begin to slow down Canelo, especially since Canelo's stamina is questionable. Be prepared to see Canelo throw a combination, then just sit not throw any punches for a good chunk of time.
3. Busier fighter - Under Freddy Roach’s tutelage, Cotto has been a busy fighter in the ring. Against Geale, he was throwing around 45 punches a round.  Alvarez on the other hand, was only throwing 30 - 35 against Erislandy Lara.  Especially given Canelo’s suspect stamina, if Cotto can tire out Canelo with some body shots, Cotto should be able to win some second half rounds.
4. Corner Advantage - Having a 7-time trainer of the year in your corner obviously helps Cotto. If there are adjustments that need to be made during the fight, you can bet that Freddie will tell Cotto how to change the game plan to help him win.

Things to look for:

• Cotto often gets cuts above his eyes. Against a power puncher like Canelo, if Cotto cannot block, dodge, or see those punches, a cut above his eyes could drastically change his likelihood of winning and may even lead to him being knocked out.

  

  Common cut for Miguel Cotto over his left eye

  
  
• Jabbing War - Canelo has a 3.5” reach advantage over Cotto, which he should use to jab Cotto and control distance. That being said, Cotto is a master boxer, and always finds away to have a solid jab no matter who he is fighting.
• Who will get off first? I usually always like the boxer who begins the engagements, especially given the amazing combination punching both of these fighters have.  I honestly have no idea who will be the aggressor in this fight, but whoever throws first will have a large advantage. 
• Counter Punching - Both of these boxers have a great counter punching ability. Both have great defense and head movement. If either fighter gets caught by Cotto's left hook and Canelo's right uppercut off a counter, it could be a quick night. These boxers have knockout power, (Canelo more-so than Cotto) and catching one of these punches while being out of position could end the fight.
• Movement - Cotto will need to move effectively against Canelo.  Erislandy Lara was extremely effective against Canelo, and Roach and Cotto should try to recreate that success through moving around the ring.  Canelo likes to set up before he throws, and is ineffective at cutting off the ring. Cotto is not as slick of a fighter as Lara, but he should aim to move around the ring and not let Canelo set up. On the other hand, when Canelo can lock down Cotto, he needs to utilize those moments to put some punishment on Cotto.  Movement and ring generalship will be important to note throughout the fight. 
• Canelo often starts out his fights slowly. In a fight this close, losing rounds due to a slow start is not ideal. Look to see how quickly Canelo will begin the fight. 

Overall Prediction:

This has been the a really challenging fight for me to make a prediction. Both fighters enter the ring with so much speed, power, boxing ability, and heart, that making a prediction is extremely tough.

All in all, I see Canelo utilizing his size throughout the fight.  I do not think he is going to knockout Cotto, but I do see him controlling the fight after getting comfortable in the ring.  I think Cotto will come out aggressively and will win early rounds, but once Canelo settles in, I see him using his power, youth, and speed to dictate the rest of the fight. 

I will say this, if I was a betting man, the safe bet to place would be on Canelo, but I would still put money down on Cotto. Why? Because I can see him winning this fight.  Do I think it's likely? Not really. Possible? Definitely. 

Canelo by decision. 116 - 112. Eight rounds to four. 

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