Mayweather vs. McGregor: Predictions From A Conor McGregor Fan



As you probably already know all too well, UFC Lightweight Champion Conor McGregor and boxing legend Floyd Mayweather Jr. are set to fight on August 26 later this year. Now pushing aside this fight's impact on boxing (see Anjul's article here), let's take a look at how this fight will pan out from a McGregor fan's perspective.


Boxing vs. UFC

Let's first highlight the key differences between boxing and UFC's style of MMA:

UFC
  • Includes elbows, kicks, knees, hits below the belt (so long as it is not at the groin or below the kneews), and various forms of grappling1
  • Featherweight is 135-145 lbs, Lightweight is 145-155 lbs, and Welterweight is 155-170 lbs2
  • Uses an octagonal cage (the Octagon) surrounded by a fence3
  • Focuses more on how one blends aspects of various forms of martial arts
  • 5 minute rounds at 3 rounds for normal fights and 5 rounds for title shots and headliners4

Professional Boxing
  • Limited to "just" boxing but at a much higher level of mastery
  • Welterweight is 140-147lbs, Light-Middleweight is 147-154 lbs, and Super-Middleweight is 160-168 lbs5
  • Uses a square ring surrounded by 4 ropes along 4 posts5
  • Focuses on pure boxing ability
  • 3 minute rounds (2 minutes for women) with varying numbers of rounds depending on the gravity of the fight and gender of each contestant but can be up to 12 rounds total5

How do these differences fare with regards to boxers vs. UFC fighters? Well, let's take it one bullet at a time. 

First, MMA fighters are constantly dealing with leg kicks, body kicks, and takedown attempts. This means that their hands naturally fall somewhere around chest level out of habit to better block and stop these attacks which boxers don't normally have to deal with. However, it also means that MMA fighters are more prone to head shots if they do not possess the necessary head movement whereas boxers keep their hands up and are able to slip and slide without worrying about kicks and takedowns. This puts MMA fighters at a disadvantage already.

Weight classes are different between the two as well. You may have probably noticed the enormous weight interval for UFC's Welterweight division (a 165 lb division may be happening soon, but that is for a different article). It shouldn't mean much in terms of performance between the two sports, but it is something important to note when understanding where one fighter from each belongs in the other's sport.

Next, the size of the fighting space is concerning for UFC fighters too used to the Octagon. The size of the Octagon has a diameter of 30 feet of space from point to point.3 Contrast this to standard boxing rings which are between 18 and 24 feet of space from one side to the other.5 That's roughly 745 square feet compared to a mere maximum of 576 square feet of space, respectively--a whole lotta difference for UFC fighters. To make matters worse, it is much harder to get out of a corner in a square ring than it is in the Octagon simply because of the space you have in each corner (90 degrees for a ring compared to 135 degrees). Quite a lot of getting used to, no?

The foci of each sport are major factors as well; boxers "just" box, but they box at a level that is unmatched by nearly all UFC fighters. However, one can argue that MMA fighters have to "deal with more at once" and as such will have better head movement and blocking ability when restricting the rules down to boxing only. Still, it is contingent on the fighter's style as well as some focus more on submissions (see Demian Maia) or kicking (see Holly Holms) than general striking. Perhaps the biggest concern for UFC fighters in this regard is that boxers move much faster than almost anyone in the UFC. There are very few UFC fighters who can throw punches as fast as boxers, the only two of which that I can name off the top of my head being Cub Swanson and Cody Garbrandt, but that is also because they have strong boxing foundations without having ever boxed professionally6,7. The difference in speed can very well make or break a fighter depending on one's reflexes and boxing IQ.

Lastly, the number of rounds and the length of each round determines the strategy and stamina for each fighter. In both sports, fighters usually go for an early KO if they know they can't last long or wait and tire out their opponents in the later rounds if the converse is true. For UFC fighters, however, 3 minute rounds is a breeze since a standard UFC round is 5 minutes full of defending against takedowns, getting out of chokes, and just general grappling. But there are also those special fighters who just dominate in the Octagon and never have to deal with much more than an early round KO, so how one fares with the switch from MMA to boxing is very circumstantial.


"The Notorious"

It's no doubt that McGregor is dominant in the Octagon among his peers; he talks a whole lot of trash and backs up every ounce of it. But in order to understand why this is, we must analyze his style. For this, we will break it all down into:
  1. Boxing ability - How well does he box and move?
  2. Fighting IQ - How smart is he as a UFC fighter?
  3. Stamina - How long can he really last in a standard UFC fight?
  4. Mindset - How does he face adversity? How does he grow?
  5. Overall style and strategy - How does he put it all together to be the champion he is today?
Conor's boxing ability, although far from the best, is actually much higher than most of UFC. He shows great head movement, moves around in a relaxed yet practical manner, strikes with precision to the temple, and has a knack of finding holes in one's defense. This can be seen from the very beginning at his UFC debut against Marcus Brimage. Notice his weird philly-shell-traditional hybrid defense, his loose yet calculated movement. He strikes with a purpose, always keeping his left hand (as a southpaw) ready for the KO. He fights defensively but goes in for the kill any chance he gets. This is the core of his style today, and it's only gotten better and more efficient.



McGregor also shows a high fighting IQ. He picks his shots carefully, patiently waiting for the right moment rather than swinging wildly. He counters hard, putting enough power into his punches to drop even the Crimson Chin. He maintains good distance, making use of his unusually long reach. This coupled with his boxing ability makes for a smart striker; McGregor may fare better than expected as a boxer since he is both a defender and an aggressor but never too much of either. The only exception is, well, coming up.


Despite being so damn good and scary, Conor has flaws, too. His greatest flaw is his stamina; he's shown time and time again he cannot keep up his usual pace for long. This was especially apparent against his first fight with Nate Diaz. At first, it all seemed to go Conor's way: he bombarded Diaz with heavy shots to the head and face, spilling blood all over the Octagon, but little did he know Diaz had a military-grade chin. Consequentially, he gassed out midway through the second round, making for an easy submission win for Diaz. We can look at this and say, "Give him a break; Diaz is a different breed among the rest! He's a tough SOB with a jaw of solid titanium!" That's true, so ho about we talk about the time he did win against Diaz. That's right: not too long after, the two had a rematch that became arguably one of the best rivalries and fights in UFC history. It was a war that was hard-fought by both and bloodier than before, but still Conor showed very little energy after the second round despite fighting more conservatively. By the third round, he began running away from Diaz, and by the end of the fourth and fifth rounds, he found himself on the ground waiting for the bell. Any non-blind McGregor fan who watched the fight can tell that he would have been done for had there been just another minute left to fight. Still, he won but not without proving to everyone just how little stamina he really has despite not cutting at all compared to his 200-pound rival. It is important to note, however, that both fights were his only fights as a Welterweight (170 lbs), as he usually fights at Featherweight (145 lbs) and now Lightweight (155 lbs).


There was one positive take-away from the rivalry for Conor, however, and that is his heart and attitude facing such a loss. Not long after the loss, McGregor was back in the gym. He then worked harder than ever and reinvented his style, adding Muay Thai-style leg kicks, more technical punches and blocking, and more cardio. You can even see him on an exercise bike with an elevation training mask on his coach's Instagram page. This is the heart and willpower of a champion, and that is what Conor brings to the table. He took his lost with dignity, came back to the gym with revenge, learned from his mistakes, and morphed into the champion fighter he is today. Even today, he is still looking for ways to grow as a fighter, switching up his style a bit for Eddie Alvarez in his most recent fight at UFC 205. He may not have won to most during the rematch with Diaz, but there was drastic improvement between the two bouts, and that is what a champion does.


How does he put it all together? Well if you've been following him, he has a certain formula to it all: trash talk, let the fans do the trash talking, plant seeds of doubt in his opponents mind, and go out there and back it all up. Lately, he has been chasing the KO early in the fight, but as we've seen after his first fight with Diaz, he has humbled himself a bit and has started to train for specific fighters. This was especially apparent with his rematch with Diaz and his bout against Alvarez; he became much more patient with his shots and was more conservative to survive later rounds against Diaz but went for the early-round KO with Alvarez by taking advantage of Alvarez's open chin during his periodic fury of punches. Combine that with his extreme confidence and faith in himself, and you have a true UFC champion.


"Pretty Boy"

Disclaimer: I primarily watch UFC and have studied basic boxing, but there is still much for me to learn about the sport as a whole. I will be omitting anything regarding Mayweather's attitude and mindset toward boxing inside and out of the ring as I simply do not know enough to comment.

What to say about Floyd Mayweather Jr.? For starters, anyone who doesn't live under a rock knows that the name Mayweather is synonymous with "Boxing Legend". I myself love to watch his highlights on Youtube. In fact, let's watch one or two right now and then break it down into:

  1. Speed - How fast does he move and punch?
  2. Boxing Ability - How well does he box and move?
  3. Fighting IQ - How smart is he as a boxer?
  4. Overall style and strategy - How does he put it all together to be the champion that he is today?

Well, there's only one appropriate way to start this: that dude is fast. If Mayweather is not the definition of speed, I don't know what is. He throws counters after his opponent throws punches and somehow his counters land way before his opponent can even get to him. In real-time speed, it seems like he slips just as fast as his opponents throw punches, if not faster. He's so fast he makes speed look like a downer.


Speed alone, however, means nothing if you can't apply it, but Mayweather does. His head movement is impeccable, always moving out of the way of punches even when tight in a corner. His opponent's punches are almost always just about an inch away. He uses his philly-shell defense effectively and efficiently, never fully relying on it but blocking all potential head hits with either his right hand or his left shoulder. In the face of body shots, he just quickly hops out of the way as if he is a toddler staying away from disgusting cooties but, you know, with a certain swagger. To top it all off, Floyd hits with extreme precision, often hitting his opponents either hard in the stomach or right at the temple. Like McGregor, he's usually defensive but also takes any major fight-ending opportunities with ease.


Did I also mention that Mayweather is a defensive genius? He always tries to maintain enough distance to not have to worry too much about being hit then somehow throws a long counter to make up for any reach disadvantages. In almost any time when hes in a corner, he somehow slips as if he knows what is coming next, often starting the slip the split second his opponent starts to punch. After slipping, he somehow knows where his opponent will block next, aiming for the exact spot his opponent left open before his opponent even leaves it open. Perhaps one can say he does know what is coming next because he has such a high fighting IQ, predicting every move with great accuracy.


Together, it all makes for possibly one of the most complete boxers of all time. Mayweather uses his defensive ingenuity to predict every move, attacking whenever he has a chance then quickly getting out before getting tagged. Once rocked, his opponents stand no chance. Floyed is the epitome of boxing and the master of his craft. You don't get to 49-0 without completely dominating the sport.


The Verdict

As much as I like Conor, he barely stands a chance against Mayweather (sorry fellow fans). As a UFC striker transitioning to boxing, he is already at a disadvantage due to the size of the ring and the level of boxing mastery general boxers are already at. Furthermore, he has a tendency to keep his hands around chest-level as an MMA fighter, which is the very last thing you would want to do against a head-hunting boxers. That alone should be enough, but that's not all! Why will specifically McGregor lose against the great Mayweather?

As I’ve shown, McGregor has good head movement and great boxing ability, but he is nowhere near Mayweather’s level. McGregor can find holes in other fighters’ armors, can be the aggressor and the defender, and can slip away easily. But Mayweather does it better. He’s also shown that he can’t last past two or three rounds of fighting at 170 pounds. UFC rounds are 5 minutes long, so that’s up to 10 to 15 minutes of stamina for McGregor as a UFC welterweight. Cutting down to 154 lbs (Mayweather's highest weight class8) or 147 lbs (The weight class of Mayweather's fights toward the end of his career9), he can probably last maybe another 5 minutes. That’s 20 minutes total--the equivalent of just under 7 professional boxing rounds. That’s right: he can only last 7 rounds at best against Mayweather, and that’s if he doesn’t chase the knockout, which we know he will given the trash talk between the two and how much he wants to stick it in Mayweather’s face. Furthermore, and perhaps the nail in the coffin, Mayweather will be defensive like he usually is and will try and force McGregor into being the aggressor. The second McGregor makes a mistake, Mayweather will capitalize on it with a powerful punch to Conor’s temple. We’ve never seen anyone knock Conor down, but if anyone can do it, it’d be Mayweather with repeated blows to the head.

Conor’s chances of winning are contingent on three aspects of his fighting game: his ability to get into his opponent's head, his striking ability, and his champion attitude. He has a running record of pulling some amazing wins out of his, um, trash chute as if by magic. He needs to prepare specifically for Mayweather just as he did for Alvarez. He’s reinvented his style before and can perhaps somehow train himself to become a good enough boxer to tag Mayweather hard a handful of times. And that’s what McGregor will need to do if he wants to win: tag Mayweather hard and early using precision shots and his unconventional fighting style. Even then, that’s a slim chance at best given the circumstances.

In conclusion, this is a classic case of a jack of all trades but a master of none going against a master of one: by limiting the rules down to boxing only, McGregor is a pretty damn good boxer going against the boxer. He will almost certainly lose, and Mayweather will go down as an even greater boxer than he already was with a 50-0 record. McGregor will go home embarrassed, and everything will return back to normal after millions around the world waste $100 just as millions did for the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight.


1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship#Fouls
2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship#Weight_divisions.2FCurrent_champions
3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship#Cage
4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship#Rounds
5 http://www.worldboxingfederation.net/wbfrulesandregulations.htm
6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cub_Swanson#Background
7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cody_Garbrandt#Background
8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floyd_Mayweather_Jr.#Light_middleweight
9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floyd_Mayweather_Jr.#Welterweight
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