Last season, the Mariners finished with a record of 86-76, along with a +61 run differential. Despite the close finish in the wild card standings, Seattle decided it was finally time for a change in the front office. They fired their general manager Jack Zduriencik, and eventually hired former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto to the same role. And since he's taken over, Dipoto has been quite busy. The Mariners have easily had the busiest offseason of any team in baseball, remarkably making 10 trades and significantly changing the complexion of their roster in the process. But have all these moves put them in a better position to finally end their postseason drought in 2017?
Starting Pitching
In: Drew Smyly, Yovani Gallardo
Out: Taijuan Walker, Nate Karns, Vidal Nuno
Projected Starters: Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Drew Smyly, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yovani Gallardo
Takeaway: Walker was an intriguing prospect who has shown impressive stuff, but he had not shown much improvement from the previous season. He will need to cut down on his walk rate and probably add another secondary pitch if he wants to succeed at the major league level as effectively as he did in the minors. Smyly has a chance to breakout with the Mariners. His peripherals over the past few years are encouraging. Now, he moves out of the AL East, and has the opportunity to start half his games at the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Despite the drop in velocity last season, Hernandez still has the opportunity to be effective and age gracefully. Along with the emergence of James Paxton, Smyly should provide the Mariners with a very effective top of the rotation. The loss of Karns will likely have minimal impact for Seattle. He is simply too wild to be an effective pitcher, as evidenced by last year's 4.29 BB/9. Nuno, on the other hand, could be missed. He was a very solid back end of the rotation starter who will now be replaced by Yovani Gallardo, a pitcher who certainly eats up innings, but has been in the decline since 2013, and is coming off a horrific season. Maybe that spot is eventually taken by youngster Ariel Miranda or newly acquired swingman Chris Heston, who had a similar 6th starter/long reliever role for the Giants in 2015.
Outfield
In: Jarrod Dyson, Mitch Haniger
Out: Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez
Projected Starters: Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin, Mitch Haniger
Takeaway: Despite performing well in 2015, Gutierrez struggled last season, perhaps due to injury and inconsistent playing time. His defense in particular was a major problem. Given that he is getting up there in age, moving on from him was probably the right decision from Dipoto. Smith, a platoon favorite against right-handed pitching, similarly struggled last season playing defense in the outfield. The Mariners may miss some of their power, but Dyson gives them the defensive upgrade in the outfield they desperately needed. He also gives them some speed, a theme for many teams this offseason. In addition to Dyson and returning starter Martin, the Mariners' final starter will likely be the rookie Mitch Haniger, who may lack in experience but showed tremendous potential in the minor leagues, and put up statistics that project favorably to the major league level.
Infield
In: Danny Valencia, Jean Segura, Carlos Ruiz, Taylor Motter
Out: Ketel Marte, Dae-Ho Lee, Adam Lind
Projected Starters: Danny Valencia, Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino
Takeaway: Though it's unlikely Jean Segura will be able to repeat career season he achieved last year in Arizona, he should still be a substantial upgrade over Marte at shortstop for Seattle. At first base, Valencia will likely split time with rookie Dan Vogelbach. This could also be a moderate improvement for Seattle; the Dae-Ho Lee experiment was not as successful for the Mariners as they would have liked and Lind did not bring anything to the table when he got playing time either. Ruiz and Motter provide them with some much needed depth, which will help this team remain competitive when inevitable injuries become a factor.
Bullpen
In: Shae Simmons, Chris Heston, Zac Curtis, James Pazos, Mark Rzepczynski, Casey Fien, Ryan Cook.
Out: Drew Storen, Tom Wilhelmsen, Arquimedes Caminero.
Projected Depth Chart: Edwin Diaz, Steve Cishek, Nick Vincent, Mark Rzepczynski, Dan Altavilla, Evan Scribner, Shae Simmons, Casey Fien, James Pazos, Zac Curtis.
Takeaway: Like every other portion of the roster, the bullpen for Seattle has gotten better. Wilhelmsen and Caminero, who were not very effective, were released. Storen, who had an unproductive stint in a Mariner uniform last season, was not re-signed. With Diaz and Cishek locked into late inning roles, the targets became guys who could eat innings in the 6th and 7th innings. Pazos and Simmons have strikeout stuff and nice upside, while Rzepczynski (yes I have to copy paste his name) is no longer a dominant lefty-specialist but can still be effective in low leverage situations. Heston also provides Seattle with someone to come into long relief situations when starters have to leave the game far earlier than expected.
The additions of an impact starting pitcher, much-needed bench depth, and some key bullpen pieces gives Seattle a projected total team WAR of 39.4, which would rank 10th in the MLB, 5th in the AL, and 2nd in the AL West. Barring major injuries and/or significant declines from their franchise cornerstones, I could see the projection going up if players like James Paxton, Mitch Haniger, and Dan Vogelbach make adjustments and get further along in their development. This is the best chance the unluckiest team in the MLB has had in some time. They probably won't win the division but the Mariners are primed to make a run for a wild card spot. And with some luck, maybe they could make a run at something bigger.
Below is a summary of the major changes to Seattle's 40-man roster since last season's trade deadline:
Traded For
J. Dyson (OF)
M. Haniger (OF)
D. Smyly (SP)
Y. Gallardo (SP)
C. Heston (SP/RP)
C. Ruiz (C)
D. Valencia (1B/3B/OF)
J. Segura (SS)
T. Motter (SS)
S. Simmons (RP)
Z. Curtis (RP)
J. Pazos (RP)
R. Whalen (RP)
Signed
M. Rzepczynski (RP)
C. Fien (RP)
R. Cook (RP)
Traded Away
T. Walker (SP)
N. Karns (SP)
V. Nuno (SP)
S. Smith (OF)
A. Jackson (OF)
K. Marte (SS)
Released
A. Caminero (RP)
T. Wilhelmsen (RP)
Free Agents Not Expected To Return
Franklin Gutierrez (OF)
Adam Lind (1B)
Dae-Ho Lee (1B)^
Drew Storen (RP)*
^Signed With KBO *Signed with Reds
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