After the Giants' postseason run ended last night when they gave up four runs in the ninth, I decided look to the future and see what options San Francisco has for next season:
I. Position Breakdown
Starting Pitching
Madison Bumgarner
Johnny Cueto
Matt Moore
Jeff Samardzija
Matt Cain
Total: 5 (3 RHP, 2 LHP)
- The starting rotation is once again a strength of the Giants as it has revitalized itself back into being one of the best in the league.
- Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, and Samardzija all ate up a lot of innings last year, which is exactly what the Giants need to cover up their bullpen deficiencies. The more Bochy gets out of his starters, the less he'll need to look to his relievers.
- It's very likely that Matt Cain will be converted into a long reliever role as he's best when going through a lineup the first time, and struggles when reaching the fourth and fifth innings.
- Ty Blach is a candidate to become the team's fifth starter since he impressed the Giants so much late in the season. Although it's possible he'd be thrown into the fire before he's fully ready, the Giants will not ask him to do too much as the team's fifth starter.
- If the last two points come true, San Francisco will have 3 left-handed pitchers in their starting rotation.
Relief Pitchers
Hunter Strickland
George Kontos
Derek Law
Cory Gearrin
Josh Osich
Will Smith
Total: 6 (4 RHP, 2 LHP)
- Even though it was the weakest link, and the top of the ninth in Game 4 of the NLDS will haunt the organization for some time, the Giants do have some good pieces in the bullpen. However, the team is really lacking someone who can seal the deal as the closer.
- Strickland may eventually be groomed into that role, but it'd be risky to go into the season without an insurance policy at the position in case he doesn't pan out just yet.
- Cory Gearrin will probably be demoted to Triple-A.
- Now that the Giants won't have Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, they will really struggle to go against left-handed hitters late in the game.
Infield
Buster Posey
Brandon Belt
Joe Panik
Brandon Crawford
Eduardo Nunez
Total: 5
- The Giants are set with their predominantly home-grown infield.
- We know what we'll get from Buster Posey. Great player on both sides of the field, although his loss of power is a little worrisome.
- Brandon Belt had a tale of two halves. Prior to the All-Star break, he was arguably the best first baseman in all of baseball, but after the midsummer classic, he fell victim to far too many swing-and-misses and unproductive outs. He's always been a streaky hitter but one thing the lineup can be grateful for is that he consistently draws walks. Using him at left field more often next year on days where Posey plays first base could be something that pays dividends.
- Joe Panik also had a really up-and-down season and dealt with injuries for a second straight year. He did contribute solid defense, low strikeout totals, and seemed to get in a bit of a groove towards the end of the season. As he gets older, he'll get better at making adjustments so I'd expect his numbers to normalize to his early career precedents.
- Brandon Crawford had another career year and should now be hitting his prime. It's easy to like the middle infielder with phenomenal defense, a bit of power, and slightly above-average athleticism.
- Eduardo Nunez's fielding got off to a shaky start in San Francisco, but that quickly changed as he worked with bench coach Ron Wotus more. He's always been known to get a lot of hits with a high contact rate and has proven to be a threat on the basepaths as shown by his 40 stolen bases in 2016.
Outfield
Hunter Pence
Denard Span
Total: 2
- With only two starting caliber outfielders for next year, the Giants definitely need to find someone to fill in left field.
- Left fielders usually provide the power bat in lineups, although that hasn't been the case for San Francisco since Barry Bonds retired.
- Both of the Giants' outfielders cover a lot of ground and have been dealing with injuries a lot these past two years. The two of them are aging and that is something that the organization needs to keep an eye on.
- The eye test tells us that Hunter Pence has slowed down, and his numbers reflect that as he's not fielding as well as he used to and stole only one base last year. I believe the loss of speed is a due to his injuries though, so getting him an offseason to rehab and condition will do him wonders. On the positive side of things, Pence hit really well this year when he was able to take the field.
- Even though he carried a great approach throughout the season, Denard Span had a rough first half in his lone year with the Giants and looked much more comfortable at the plate as the season went on. Additionally, his fielding was nothing short of excellent.
Bench
C Trevor Brown
IF Kelby Tomlinson
IF Ehire Adrianza
OF Mac Williamson
OF Jarrett Parker
Total: 5
- With one catcher, two infielders, and two outfielders, the Giants have a pretty balanced bench.
- Because San Francisco has had its share of bad luck with injuries in the past couple of years, they really need to be comfortable with every bench player taking the field.
- Trevor Brown could be the biggest difference maker if the Giants decide to roll him out more often. His approach and balanced swing makes him a solid contact hitter that can use every side of the field. He also gives the Giants an opportunity to either rest Posey or play him at first base, something I think the team should do more often.
- Tomlinson is another huge asset the Giants have. He's athletic, makes contact often, and can play a few different positions. Kelby could potentially become the Giants' super utility player if he ever becomes fully comfortable in the outfield.
- Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker are both power bats that can cover the corner outfield positions.
II. Free Agents
Angel Pagan ($10 million)
Jake Peavy ($13 million)
Sergio Romo ($8 million)
Santiago Casilla ($6.5 million)
Javier Lopez ($5 million)
Gregor Blanco ($3.9 million)
Conor Gillaspe ($0.5 million)
Total: ~$47 million
- If the Giants elect to match last year's salary and use all $47 million, they could ideally get a closer, an everyday left fielder, help with arbitration deals, and maybe one solid bench player.
- Of the free agents here, I could see the Giants re-signing two of them.
There are a lot of big name outfielders that are available too. The options are primed to give the Giants a chance to fill their power drought with names that include Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and Brandon Moss. Convincing any one of these power hitter to come to AT&T Park will be incredibly tough, and I don't actually think any of them are actually optimal options. Cespedes will be incredibly expensive, Joey Bats wouldn't want to leave Canada and is already 35, Mark Trumbo didn't fair well in the N.L. West when he was with Arizona a few years back, Matt Holliday is really old and battled with injuries the last couple of years, Colby Rasmus can't hit for average and strikes out way too often, and Brandon Moss lacks range and his power may not even translate to San Francisco's ballpark. The Giants also have the option of trying to go the speed route with players like Angel Pagan, Norichika Aoki, Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, and Austin Jackson. All of these players have their fair share of issues, mostly having to do with a bulk of these players not hitting well enough, age and injuries. Of all the players mentioned, the only ones I wouldn't mind San Francisco signing would actually be their former players. Giants' fans are very familiar with what Angel Pagan brings to the table, as he's probably the best fielder of this lot and is a capable hitter when he's actually healthy. If the Giants were to sign Pagan though, they'd definitely need an insurance policy. Enter Rajai Davis, who turned in a productive year with the Cleveland Indians and actually led the American League in stolen bases! Nori Aoki, although his tenure with the Giants was cut short, could also be another good contact hitter that'd keep the lineup moving.
I do think the Giants should turn their focus to Ian Desmond and prioritize signing him. Desmond has enough range to cover left field and has an incredibly strong arm to go with it. He's most known for being able to hit with above average power. The Giants were 28th in total home runs this year, which means that the middle of the order needs a lot more help. Even after the move to AT&T Park, it's safe to expect 15-20 home runs from him, which is a big boost to the power production the Giants were getting from their left fielders of years past. Also, a little extra research showed that he has surprising speed and averages 21 SB over a 162 game average.
So to wrap things up:
- The Giants have to sign one of the three: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon. Chapman is considered the best closer and would be an upgrade to any team in the MLB, Kenley Jansen would be a major blow to the Dodgers if the Giants were to nab him, and Melancon is amazing in his own right. The competition for these three will be stiff, and the Giants' offseason will be a failure if they can't land any of the them.
- I'd like them to get Ian Desmond if possible, but he'll have plenty of suitors this winter. Contract negotiations with him have proven to be tough as he's rejected a 7 year, $107 million dollar extension nearly three years ago, and a $16 million qualifying offer after coming off of a down year. I think a fair contract is something that lasts four years with a team option for a fifth year, and is valued at $60-65 million. This would give him a contract that matches those of Dexter Fowler, Nick Markakis, and Ben Zobrist, but knowing the way free agency turns out, he could end up with a annual salary of $15 million and a five year commitment.
- If the Giants miss out on the Desmond sweepstakes I'd like them to get Angel Pagan and Rajai Davis to short-term deals. They both offer great fielding, lots of speed, and versatility to handle center field duties if Denard Span ever goes down. Landing Davis will be tough because he probably wants to go to a place where he could get a good amount of playing time after showcasing that he still has a bit in the tank.
- Some other quiet options include Jon Jay and Nori Aoki. Both could be had for team-friendly contracts and follow the Giants' mantra of collecting a lot of hits and making contact often. Both have plus speed too.
- One last outfield bench option could be Peter Bourjos, who had an extremely cheap contract last year ($2 million) and offers has lots of range in the outfield. Because he finally showed that he can get hit over .250, he may get something a bit larger than what he earned last year, but I wouldn't expect anything more than $5 million.
Ideal lineup:
Denard Span - L
Ian Desmond - R
Buster Posey - R
Brandon Belt - L
Hunter Pence - R
Brandon Crawford - L
Eduardo Nunez - R
Joe Panik - L
* Pitcher's spot
I. Position Breakdown
Starting Pitching
Madison Bumgarner
Johnny Cueto
Matt Moore
Jeff Samardzija
Matt Cain
Total: 5 (3 RHP, 2 LHP)
- The starting rotation is once again a strength of the Giants as it has revitalized itself back into being one of the best in the league.
- Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, and Samardzija all ate up a lot of innings last year, which is exactly what the Giants need to cover up their bullpen deficiencies. The more Bochy gets out of his starters, the less he'll need to look to his relievers.
- It's very likely that Matt Cain will be converted into a long reliever role as he's best when going through a lineup the first time, and struggles when reaching the fourth and fifth innings.
- Ty Blach is a candidate to become the team's fifth starter since he impressed the Giants so much late in the season. Although it's possible he'd be thrown into the fire before he's fully ready, the Giants will not ask him to do too much as the team's fifth starter.
- If the last two points come true, San Francisco will have 3 left-handed pitchers in their starting rotation.
 |
| Bumgarner looks to lead a very talented pitching staff back to the playoffs and beyond. |
Relief Pitchers
Hunter Strickland
George Kontos
Derek Law
Cory Gearrin
Josh Osich
Will Smith
Total: 6 (4 RHP, 2 LHP)
- Even though it was the weakest link, and the top of the ninth in Game 4 of the NLDS will haunt the organization for some time, the Giants do have some good pieces in the bullpen. However, the team is really lacking someone who can seal the deal as the closer.
- Strickland may eventually be groomed into that role, but it'd be risky to go into the season without an insurance policy at the position in case he doesn't pan out just yet.
- Cory Gearrin will probably be demoted to Triple-A.
- Now that the Giants won't have Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, they will really struggle to go against left-handed hitters late in the game.
- Although he faltered in his first full year at the big leagues, Osich is supposed to have a similar repertoire to Affeldt.
- The other LHP, Will Smith actually pitches better to right handers than lefties.
- If Cain does become a relief pitcher and Gearrin is demoted, the Giants will only have six relievers.
- Because the Giants have the luxury of letting their starting pitchers go late into games, they could afford to roster seven relievers. In contrast, San Francisco needed to sport eight in 2015.
 |
| Hunter Strickland could eventually be the face of the bullpen, but I don't think he's quite ready for that role yet. |
Infield
Buster Posey
Brandon Belt
Joe Panik
Brandon Crawford
Eduardo Nunez
Total: 5
- The Giants are set with their predominantly home-grown infield.
- We know what we'll get from Buster Posey. Great player on both sides of the field, although his loss of power is a little worrisome.
- Brandon Belt had a tale of two halves. Prior to the All-Star break, he was arguably the best first baseman in all of baseball, but after the midsummer classic, he fell victim to far too many swing-and-misses and unproductive outs. He's always been a streaky hitter but one thing the lineup can be grateful for is that he consistently draws walks. Using him at left field more often next year on days where Posey plays first base could be something that pays dividends.
- Joe Panik also had a really up-and-down season and dealt with injuries for a second straight year. He did contribute solid defense, low strikeout totals, and seemed to get in a bit of a groove towards the end of the season. As he gets older, he'll get better at making adjustments so I'd expect his numbers to normalize to his early career precedents.
- Brandon Crawford had another career year and should now be hitting his prime. It's easy to like the middle infielder with phenomenal defense, a bit of power, and slightly above-average athleticism.
- Eduardo Nunez's fielding got off to a shaky start in San Francisco, but that quickly changed as he worked with bench coach Ron Wotus more. He's always been known to get a lot of hits with a high contact rate and has proven to be a threat on the basepaths as shown by his 40 stolen bases in 2016.
Outfield
Hunter Pence
Denard Span
Total: 2
- With only two starting caliber outfielders for next year, the Giants definitely need to find someone to fill in left field.
- Left fielders usually provide the power bat in lineups, although that hasn't been the case for San Francisco since Barry Bonds retired.
- Both of the Giants' outfielders cover a lot of ground and have been dealing with injuries a lot these past two years. The two of them are aging and that is something that the organization needs to keep an eye on.
- The eye test tells us that Hunter Pence has slowed down, and his numbers reflect that as he's not fielding as well as he used to and stole only one base last year. I believe the loss of speed is a due to his injuries though, so getting him an offseason to rehab and condition will do him wonders. On the positive side of things, Pence hit really well this year when he was able to take the field.
- Even though he carried a great approach throughout the season, Denard Span had a rough first half in his lone year with the Giants and looked much more comfortable at the plate as the season went on. Additionally, his fielding was nothing short of excellent.
Bench
C Trevor Brown
IF Kelby Tomlinson
IF Ehire Adrianza
OF Mac Williamson
OF Jarrett Parker
Total: 5
- With one catcher, two infielders, and two outfielders, the Giants have a pretty balanced bench.
- Because San Francisco has had its share of bad luck with injuries in the past couple of years, they really need to be comfortable with every bench player taking the field.
- Trevor Brown could be the biggest difference maker if the Giants decide to roll him out more often. His approach and balanced swing makes him a solid contact hitter that can use every side of the field. He also gives the Giants an opportunity to either rest Posey or play him at first base, something I think the team should do more often.
- Tomlinson is another huge asset the Giants have. He's athletic, makes contact often, and can play a few different positions. Kelby could potentially become the Giants' super utility player if he ever becomes fully comfortable in the outfield.
- Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker are both power bats that can cover the corner outfield positions.
II. Free Agents
Angel Pagan ($10 million)
Jake Peavy ($13 million)
Sergio Romo ($8 million)
Santiago Casilla ($6.5 million)
Javier Lopez ($5 million)
Gregor Blanco ($3.9 million)
Conor Gillaspe ($0.5 million)
Total: ~$47 million
- If the Giants elect to match last year's salary and use all $47 million, they could ideally get a closer, an everyday left fielder, help with arbitration deals, and maybe one solid bench player.
- Of the free agents here, I could see the Giants re-signing two of them.
- I really like Angel Pagan's attitude and passion. He's the ultimate team player that did everything his coaches asked him to and converted to a good left fielder. It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants sign him to a short term deal to bridge the gap until they find another outfielder.
- Gillespie is the other player I see the Giants resigning as he earned himself a roster spot with his heroic playoff play. Even during the regular season, he filled in for injured players admirably and was a nice pinch hitter for late game situations.
III. So what are the options?
Everyone can agree that finding a closer will be the team's top priority. There are a few big names available like Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon, Francisco Rodriguez, and Santiago Casilla. Chapman and Jansen are probably going to be re-signed by their current teams and will be out of the Giants' price range. Cassilla really disappointed this year by blowing saves, showing a bad attitude, and shaking off Buster Posey's signs far more often than necessary. The Giants' best option would be to try to land Mark Melancon, who the team tried to acquire right before the trade deadline this year. Melancon has been one of the league's most consistent closers for the past few years and he carries what could be the best cutter in the game. Going to the Giants would be a good situation for him as well, as he'd be on a contending team in a pitcher's park with no immediate competition for the job. He won't be cheap though, and would probably end up with a contract that's slightly larger than Andrew Miller's 4 year deal for $36 million. There are a lot of big name outfielders that are available too. The options are primed to give the Giants a chance to fill their power drought with names that include Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and Brandon Moss. Convincing any one of these power hitter to come to AT&T Park will be incredibly tough, and I don't actually think any of them are actually optimal options. Cespedes will be incredibly expensive, Joey Bats wouldn't want to leave Canada and is already 35, Mark Trumbo didn't fair well in the N.L. West when he was with Arizona a few years back, Matt Holliday is really old and battled with injuries the last couple of years, Colby Rasmus can't hit for average and strikes out way too often, and Brandon Moss lacks range and his power may not even translate to San Francisco's ballpark. The Giants also have the option of trying to go the speed route with players like Angel Pagan, Norichika Aoki, Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, and Austin Jackson. All of these players have their fair share of issues, mostly having to do with a bulk of these players not hitting well enough, age and injuries. Of all the players mentioned, the only ones I wouldn't mind San Francisco signing would actually be their former players. Giants' fans are very familiar with what Angel Pagan brings to the table, as he's probably the best fielder of this lot and is a capable hitter when he's actually healthy. If the Giants were to sign Pagan though, they'd definitely need an insurance policy. Enter Rajai Davis, who turned in a productive year with the Cleveland Indians and actually led the American League in stolen bases! Nori Aoki, although his tenure with the Giants was cut short, could also be another good contact hitter that'd keep the lineup moving.
I do think the Giants should turn their focus to Ian Desmond and prioritize signing him. Desmond has enough range to cover left field and has an incredibly strong arm to go with it. He's most known for being able to hit with above average power. The Giants were 28th in total home runs this year, which means that the middle of the order needs a lot more help. Even after the move to AT&T Park, it's safe to expect 15-20 home runs from him, which is a big boost to the power production the Giants were getting from their left fielders of years past. Also, a little extra research showed that he has surprising speed and averages 21 SB over a 162 game average.
 |
| Desmond's bat and arm could be a massive difference maker for the Giants. |
- The Giants have to sign one of the three: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon. Chapman is considered the best closer and would be an upgrade to any team in the MLB, Kenley Jansen would be a major blow to the Dodgers if the Giants were to nab him, and Melancon is amazing in his own right. The competition for these three will be stiff, and the Giants' offseason will be a failure if they can't land any of the them.
- I'd like them to get Ian Desmond if possible, but he'll have plenty of suitors this winter. Contract negotiations with him have proven to be tough as he's rejected a 7 year, $107 million dollar extension nearly three years ago, and a $16 million qualifying offer after coming off of a down year. I think a fair contract is something that lasts four years with a team option for a fifth year, and is valued at $60-65 million. This would give him a contract that matches those of Dexter Fowler, Nick Markakis, and Ben Zobrist, but knowing the way free agency turns out, he could end up with a annual salary of $15 million and a five year commitment.
- If the Giants miss out on the Desmond sweepstakes I'd like them to get Angel Pagan and Rajai Davis to short-term deals. They both offer great fielding, lots of speed, and versatility to handle center field duties if Denard Span ever goes down. Landing Davis will be tough because he probably wants to go to a place where he could get a good amount of playing time after showcasing that he still has a bit in the tank.
- Some other quiet options include Jon Jay and Nori Aoki. Both could be had for team-friendly contracts and follow the Giants' mantra of collecting a lot of hits and making contact often. Both have plus speed too.
- One last outfield bench option could be Peter Bourjos, who had an extremely cheap contract last year ($2 million) and offers has lots of range in the outfield. Because he finally showed that he can get hit over .250, he may get something a bit larger than what he earned last year, but I wouldn't expect anything more than $5 million.
Ideal lineup:
Denard Span - L
Ian Desmond - R
Buster Posey - R
Brandon Belt - L
Hunter Pence - R
Brandon Crawford - L
Eduardo Nunez - R
Joe Panik - L
* Pitcher's spot
- The lineup is incredibly versatile because there are 4 lefties and 4 righties.
- Desmond has the ability to hit anywhere in the 2-4 spots
- I'd prefer if Desmond, Belt, and Pence weren't bunched together as they strike out the most often on the team.
- The Giants could safely expect 15-20 home runs from their numbers 2-6 hitters.
- There's also plenty of speed to go around in the lineup.
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