Why The Big Man Will Never Die


With what may seem like ludicrous contracts being handed out to Centers Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Hassan Whiteside, Al Jefferson, and Timofey Mozgov, I've heard a lot of chatter about the position being overvalued in today's market since there isn't much of a need for them anymore. I, on the other hand, have the exact opposite sentiment. Granted I was taken back by the figures assigned next to the dollar sign at first, but it makes sense if you consider the twenty million dollar increase in cap room. Owners have to find a new way to dictate the value of players with the payroll hike, and now it seems that the average NBA player is entitled to around $15 million a year. 

But this article has more to do with the beginning of the preface. Centers obviously haven't lost their value, otherwise they wouldn't have been so sought after by so many NBA teams. I'll admit to the average big man not being as polished as compared to those in other eras, but by no means does this mean that Centers are useless. Let me explain... 

Every fan of the NBA seems to have fallen in love with "small ball" in recent years. Understandably so too, as it's a fast paced and exciting brand of basketball, but it's come to the point where people seem to think that Centers are losing their value because of small ball's success. Part of the reason for this is due to the lack of credit these big guys get, something that is emphasized every year whenever the NBA All-Star balloting numbers are released. A big reason this happened is because of what the Warriors have accomplished in recent years, as they discovered a style of play that is both exciting and dominant. As a team that plays small ball a lot, they epitomize running-and-gunning to the tune of a whooping 103 possessions/game and beating their opponents from outside with a league-leading 31.6 attempts/game. This team, however, should be considered outlier because they have Draymond Green, a special and unique talent that can guard every position effectively (2nd in DPOY two years running) and shoot threes at a good clip (39%). Green allows the Warriors to employ their well-advertised "death lineup" without having to give up rebounding and defense, two typical weaknesses of small ball. And in spite of that lineup's general success though, the team still found the need to have two 7 footers just last year (more on that later). Turn the calendar a year and Golden State signs the second best player in the league, boosting said lineup dramatically, yet the team still felt the need to go after a free agent with size. Even though they could play Curry, K. Thompson, Iguodala, Durant, and Green together every night, the Warriors front office signed Zaza Pachulia and are even electing to start him. And for good reason too.

The pertinence of rim protection and rebounding cannot be understated. Shooting in the paint has and will always been the most efficient way to score, so if you could make it tough on opponents there, the team is in prime defensive position. Schematically speaking, having that anchor clog up the painted area allows you to tighten your perimeter defense too, by pressing more aggressively, or even sending extra bodies outside. This philosophy talk is backed up by stats, which tells us that there's a direct correlation between having the best rim protectors (in terms of points saved per game) and winning. The top ten are as follows: 
1. Hassan Whiteside 
2. Festus Ezeli
3. Rudy Gobert* 
4. Pau Gasol* 
5. Paul Milsap
6. Serge Ibaka
7. Andrew Bogut
8. John Henson* 
9. Tim Duncan
10. Bismack Biyombo
  • Stats provided by nyloncalculus 
  • Interesting tidbit: 2 of the top 7 rim protectors were on the Warriors defense, which further proves my point. 
Seven of these players were on playoff teams. With that in mind, let's take a look at the bigger picture to see the top 10 defensive NBA teams in terms of lowest points per shot.
TeamPoints/ShotBest Rim Protector Ranking
San Antonio 1.149
Atlanta1.155
Chicago1.154
Golden State1.162
Miami1.171
Oklahoma City1.176
New York1.1811
LA Clippers1.1823
Indiana1.1820
Charlotte1.1812

The reason I chose to look at points per shot is because that indicates defensive efficiency better than most stats. Statistics like opponent points per game carry variables because pacing affects it to such a great degree (more shots means more points). The connection here makes it obviously apparent that having a good rim protector help the frontline generally makes it harder for opponents to score, a recipe for success.
Rebounding well has also directly translated to wins in the NBA too. The four centers with the top rebounding averages (Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan, Hassan Whiteside, Dwight Howard respectively) all belonged to playoff teams. Additionally, seven of the top ten rebounding teams all won enough to make it to the postseason. 

Everything I focused on in the article is focused on the defensive side, but that's mostly due to the fact that there simply aren't as many offensive oriented big men as there used to be. My personal theory, however, has been that a championship team always has a player from the frontcourt who can either score from the post and/or playmake to help generate some offense for his respective team. This holds true if we date back all the way to when the calendar first hit the year 2000.
YearTeamPlayer
2000LA LakersShaq O' Neal
2001LA LakersShaq O' Neal
2002LA LakersShaq O' Neal
2003San AntonioTim Duncan
2004DetroitRasheed Wallace
2005San AntonioTim Duncan
2006MiamiShaq O' Neal
2007San AntonioTim Duncan
2008BostonKevin Garnett
2009LA LakersPau Gasol
2010LA LakersPau Gasol
2011DallasDirk Nowitzki
2012MiamiLeBron/Chris Bosh
2013MiamiLeBron/Chris Bosh
2014San AntonioTim Duncan
2015Golden StateDraymond Green
2016ClevelandLeBron/Kevin Love

  • LeBron's cases are a bit unorthodox. Chris Bosh and Kevin Love's production have been heavily criticized come playoff time, but it's also well known that both are capable scorers. Additionally, James spends a lot more time in the low post in the playoffs.
The evidence here pinpoints to big men being instrumental to creating winning teams. Although it's easy to fall in love with the glamour that is small ball, just don't forget that the there will always be a need for height in the NBA. And no matter how hard you try, you simply can't teach size. 
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