2015-6 San Francisco Giants Preview

I know I'm 9 games late but after talking to Ashley Hui about a Giants game that we will be attending together in May, I really wanted to publish this piece. While in the midst of writing it, I suffered from the flu and a stress-induced ulcer which prevented me from completing this article by the proper deadline. Fortunately now, I'm out of the E.R./hospital and on bed rest so I can get back to work! 

I've waited a very long time for the opportunity to write about my favorite sports team. Because I have so much to say, I thought I'd try to make it easier for my readers in any way possible by formatting the article in this way:

A. Brief Recap of 2015
B. Starting Pitching
C. Bullpen
D. Fielding
E. Starting Lineup
F. Bench
G. Conclusion & Prediction

Edit 1: A friend of mine who is just getting into baseball said they had a hard time understanding a lot of this. As of now, I write these articles expecting the audience to be people who have a basic understanding of the sport, but if you'd like me to simplify my writing just let me know!
Edit 2: Something I wish I expanded on more was the speed the Giants have in their lineup. Span, Pence, Pagan, and Duffy are all Tier 1 when it comes to speed. Panik, Belt, and Crawford all have above-average speed. Hell, even Posey has been faster than most catchers since the start of last year. 

A. 2015 recap
Although the Giants didn't make the post-season, I found 2015 to be one of the more exciting years that they put together. The team managed to win 84 games and showed lots of promise even though they were forced to limp towards the finish line due to a multitude of injuries. Every starting position player outside of Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner was hurt at some point or another. In spite of that though, the team still ranked among the top in most important offensive and defensive categories, especially in runs and fielding sabermetrics. Another bright spot was the bullpen where the team made the most of its two young, promising arms in Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich. Many feared that the heavy usage of the back end of the pitchers would get to the core, and it did for a good month or two of the season, but the incoming youth was the shot in the arm that this club needed. Ironically enough, it was the Giants' starting rotation that proved to be the one glaring weakness. For the better part of the decade, Giants fans have grown accustomed to having some of the best aces in the game, but only Madison Bumgarner managed to complete the entire season. Matt Cain and Jake Peavy started the season injured, but when they returned, both Tim Lincecum and Hudson got injured. And even though Chris Heston was an asset early on and even threw a no-hitter, he eventually showed mortality and faded out around August.

Now it's really easy for me to expand on the details of the 2015 season but there's no reason to look into the past anymore. Let's now try to wrap our minds around what 2016 has in store for us...

B. Starting Pitching
There doesn't need to be much explaining when it comes to the ace Madison Bumgarner as he's as safe a bet as it comes. Every full season he's played since entering the league has been a 200+ inning year that's been accompanied with an ERA that hovers around 3.00. What's special about Bumgarner is that he's a power pitcher who has a total of five pitches in his arsenal. Having a wide display of pitches aids him in being consistent and enjoyable to watch.

The Giants brought in another entertainer when they signed him to a 6 year, $130 million dollar contract. Johnny Cueto (or Beisbol since I love that nickname) has had a ton of success when playing for the Cincinnati Reds, especially from 2010-2015, when he was the best pitcher in the National League not named Clayton Kershaw. He was so good in that time-frame, that I'm willing to say that the 2012 Divisional Round where the Giants played the Reds would have had a very different outcome if Cueto was healthy then. When he was traded to the eventual World Champion Kansas City Royals the previous year, he struggled, but not to the extent people like to make out. Really, he was only bad for the last week of August and first two weeks of September as he suddenly seemed to be giving up a home-run every inning for some inexplicable reason. As a baseball player, he's fully capable of being an ace and should be viewed as more of a 1B starter than a No. 2 in a rotation. Much like other pitchers in this rotation, he eats up innings at an elite level and throws hard with what looks to be with very little effort. A non-baseball skill I like that Cueto will bring to this ballclub is a certain attitude, toughness, and even though I hate to use the word... swagger (because honestly that's what it is). Johnny Cueto's track record speaks for itself and I think watching him and his personality will be a lot of fun this year.

To have the gall to do this when facing one of the best power hitters in Nelson Cruz shows what kind of personality I'm talking about. *GIF isn't working but it's of him shimmying right before throwing his pitch. 
I grew fond of the Giants first off-season acquisition in 2012 when he played for the Chicago Cubs. Jeff Samardzija made a blip on my radar when I looked at the variety of pitches and the amount of filth associated with them. I've seen his cutter ring up to 95mph before, and his slider has the late break to it that drives hitters insane. While he doesn't have a curveball like most starting pitchers, his splitfinger more than makes up for it as it comes with hard movement. With the type of pitches at his command, his body of work screams ace, but his consistency after last year's abysmal performances questions his hittability. People do attest that his last year's performance was simply because he played in a hitter's park with the league's worst defense backing him up, and that AT&T Park, the Giants' fielding, and pitching coach guru Dave Righetti should remedy that in a flash. Regardless of what caused his rough season, Shark still completed over 200 innings that year and the three others before it. In spite of all that though, Samardzija only has around 1000 total innings in the big leagues because he began his baseball career as a relief pitcher. This is good news as pitchers usually have a big toll on their arm when they hit the free market, but the Giants were able to take advantage of his abnormal development. 

Peavy has more in the tank than given credit for. Most baseball fans from the 2000s think he's older than he really is because he made his major league debut at the ripe age of 21. However, he's thrown 189.1 innings in 31 starts as a Giant and had a 200+ inning year in as recently as 2014. Yes he has a lot of mileage on his arm (nearly 2260 innings amassed in his career), but his velocity is still solid (90.2 avg, 93.4 max). Even if his velocity continues to take a dip, I don't think it'll matter since Peavy's best pitch has always been his cutter-something he's relied on at any count when facing a batter. On top of that, his curveball is actually getting better too.

The only serious question mark in the rotation is Matt Cain. His last few years have been... rough to say the least. With injuries and inconsistencies haunting him, Cain has shown that he has a lot of bugs to work out. I, however, am expecting hoping for a bounce-back season from him. Call me a fan that can't let go of the past, a dreamer, an idealist, and/or delusional, but I saw reason for optimism last year. Let's start with the first indicator that people look at when pitchers struggle: his fastball velocity. Last year Cain averaged 91.0 mph, which barely deviates from his career average of 91.7. Additionally, most of the games he pitched were pretty solid, but that effort was masked by one or two innings where he struggled with mechanics. Instead of hurling pitches like we're used to seeing, Cain would fall into the trap of pushing his pitches, which makes the ball travel in a straight line and significantly easier to hit. Opponents took advantage of that and batted balls against him harder than ever before. This issue also explains why his home run rate ballooned to 1.78 per 9 innings. Having a full season to get comfortable with his arm motion and elbow post-surgery will do a lot to benefit the former All-Star.

Two things that I'm really excited about this year are the pitchers' velocities, and workload that they can manage. Beloved baseball analyst and broadcaster Mike Krukow stated on KNBR that he believes that it's possible to get 1000 innings out of the starting rotation. While I don't think that that number is entirely realistic, I think it's fair for us to expect 800 IPs from these group of guys if they're healthy. 


Avg. VelocityMax Velocity
Bumgarner9295.1
Beisbol92.996.1
Samardzija 94.397.7

Watching people throw things hard is fun. 


C. Bullpen
San Francisco's bullpen has been rather consistent ever since its first title run. Names like Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, George Kontos, and Santiago Casilla have become very familiar in recent years. However, missing from that list is an important catalyst, Jeremy Affeldt since he hit retirement (one of the best postseason relief pitchers ever). I believe that Josh Osich is fully capable of replacing Affeldt as our lefty do-it-all relief pitcher as the two share many similar pitches. I'd also like to see Hunter Strickland take on a bigger role and become the eventual closer. Last year he performed impeccably, and compared to Casilla, was more consistent and has a livelier fastball. Maybe I'm expecting a lot out of the young arms, but they have some really good stuff and left a really good impression on me. To round up the bullpen is long reliever Chris Heston, who I think fits this role well and could even be a spot starter for anyone who needs a spell. 

D. Fielding
To make this easy for those just getting into baseball: the Giants will be very good at fielding. Without having to spew out a bunch of sabermetrics and advanced stats, the eye-test can tell you how many good gloves this team has. According to SDI Ranks, three Giants should have taken home the Gold Glove award: 1B Brandon Belt, SS Brandon Crawford, and C Buster Posey (if Joe Panik was able to complete the season he would have been atop this category at second base as well). 3B Matt Duffy actually finished 2nd in this ranking even though it was just his first year at the position and quick adjustments needed to be made. Although it's possible to see improvement with Duffy in this regard, he'll probably never be the best fielding third baseman as long as Nolan Arenado is around. In short though, the Giants' homegrown infield is probably the best unit on the defensive side of things.

The new addition of Denard Span will do a lot to improve the outfield as well. Although he's never won a Gold Glove award, he's always had a reputation of being a good outfielder who can cover a lot of ground. Like most center fielders though, he does carry a weak arm that probably won't be throwing out a lot of runners this year. His quick release does a good job at masking that flaw however, and will aid in holding runners on the base paths. This acquisition also moves Angel Pagan over to left field. His fielding deficiencies from a year ago have been well documented as most stats ranked him as the worst center fielder. I attribute a lot of that to injury though. While he didn't make any trips to the DL, Pagan fought through bad knees as the team simply didn't have enough reserves to let him rest or get rehab. Pagan will have more range than the average left fielder but will be lacking in arm strength. Typically corner outfielders have strong arms and Pagan is severely lacking in that department. He'll see a lot of runners challenging him this year so we'll have to see if this is a real problem or not over the course of the season. Lastly, there's Hunter Pence who has always been known as a 5-tool player. With his conditioning, athleticism, and natural baseball talent, it'll be easy for us to expect fantastic fielding. In fact, his range and arm strength rank among the best in the game. 
Denard Span may actually be my favorite off-season due to his baseball I.Q. and professionalism.
E. Lineup
Things we should grow accustomed to from the Giants' lineup: patience, plate discipline, situational hitting, and lots of contact. The Giants have a lineup comprised of many hitters who work pitch counts and go with whatever pitch location they are given. It gets me excited just thinking about it because this could be the best lineup the franchise has produced since 2002 when the team was headlined by Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent! While this year's lineup doesn't have that kind of power, I think it will surprise people in that department. Based on last year's numbers and if we were to expect a healthy season from the players, it's safe to say that the Giants could expect double digit home-run seasons from Duffy, Panik, Crawford, Belt, Posey, and Pence (with the last four averaging around 20 a piece). In a park that's as pitcher-friendly as AT&T, that's a pretty big deal. 

The Giants expect to use a lineup where the pitchers hit in the 8th spot, something I never really understood the logic behind. But there's a reason Bochy is on his way to be a Hall-of-Fame manager and I'm sitting behind a laptop screen. Anyways, it expects to look along the lines of this: 
1. CF Denard Span: L
- Span is a prototypical leadoff hitter with lots of speed, smart at-bats, and the highest contact rate in all of baseball. Throughout his career he's always been known to be one of the most professional hitters in the game. I remember him giving the Giants tough at-bats in the 2014 divisional round even if he didn't end up with a hit.
2. 2B Joe Panik: L
- Panik has one of the best approaches and swings on not just the Giants, but all of baseball. His offensive game is incredibly mature for someone who is only 25. With one of the lowest swing-and-miss rates in the game, he makes a great No. 2 hitter. 
3. C Buster Posey: R
- Every time I think Posey hits his ceiling, he does something else to impress the entire MLB. Last year he dropped the number of strikeouts to 52, which is absolutely remarkable. 
4. LF Hunter Pence: R 
- He's got an ugly swing, chases a lot, and is one of the better hitters in the game. I don't get how any of it works, I've just learned not to argue with it. Having a heavy hitter and big RBI guy like Pence back in the lineup will do this team wonders.  
5. 1B Brandon Belt: L 
- Did you know that Belt was a top 10 hitter in the N.L. after park-adjusted numbers last year? People complain about his streakiness and the number of strikeouts he totals, but it's hard to argue with the results he's putting up, especially when you factor in that he's a lefty spending half of his at-bats in AT&T Park. 
6. 3B Matt Duffy: R 
- People question whether or not Duffy will run into the sophomore slump. My prediction: not a chance. What people fail to realize is that in his rookie year he was consistent as he hit .300 from every month from May-August. The only reason he didn't reach that mark in April was because he wasn't the starting third baseman then, and in September he simply burned out because he was never rested. 
7. SS Brandon Crawford: L 
- It seems like throughout his career Crawford has never had any protection behind him, which makes it easier for pitchers to get aggressive against him. He's always done a good job of working around that and producing a lot of RBIs. 
8. - Pitcher's spot - 
- On top of having a good hitting pitcher in Madison Bumgarner, the Giants signed another one of those athletes when they inked Jeff Samardzija. As a former standout football player, I'd expect Samardzija to have a lot of power.  
9. LF Angel Pagan: S 
- Something I mentioned before in the last section but need to repeat to emphasize: Pagan played really well in 2015 when he was healthy. That includes hitting as well. After the first month and a half of the season he was hitting .340 and there wasn't a big dropoff in average until his troubled knees got the better of him. People complain that he doesn't have power but he's a leadoff hitter, he doesn't need power! Another advantage of having Span and Pagan: it's like having two leadoff hitters at the top and bottom of the lineup. 

Side Note: It's atypical for lineups to have two lefties at the top of it, but after that it does a pretty good job of switching between lefties and righties. 

F. Bench
Because of all the injuries, the bench ended up playing a large role last year. Many players were asked to step into a bigger role and the Giants were lucky in the fact that they found some hidden gems because of that. The first of which is Kelby Tomlinson, who showed that he was an athletic contact hitter. Last year he proved to be a viable replacement to Joe Panik as he hit .303 in 54 games, displayed tremendous instinct and speed on the basepath, and played passable defense. That doesn't go to say he doesn't have any holes in his game. His arm strength makes me question if he can actually play third base and shortstop like most reports say he can, and he has troubles connecting with fastballs that reach the mid to high 90s. In the end, he's one of the better bench players in the league. Gregor Blanco has always best served as a platoon player as his average usually drops when asked to take the field everyday. Last year however, he showed improvement as he hit .291 despite having to play 115 games. His fielding and base running is never in question so it's nice to see that the team can confidently depend on him more. The one player fans found underwhelming was utility man Ehire Adrianza. He showed low baseball I.Q. as he did many questionable things like stand too close to the plate so he couldn't hit inside pitches, take defensive swings in hitter-friendly counts, and be unable to hit to the situation at hand. Towards the end of last year, however, he showed signs of improvement and a better knack for the game. If progress continues he could be another viable bench player the Giants can roll out to the diamond without hesitation.  

The bench player who caught my eye the most late last year was Trevor Brown. He even beat out Andrew Susac for the backup catcher role this Spring which says a lot since Susac has been on a lot of team's radars for his ability to hit better than the average catcher. Brown appeared in very limited games last year (13) and I haven't had the chance to follow Spring Training closely, so I honestly don't have much to say about him other than the fact that he seems intriguing. I have come across rumors that says he can play second and third base which could give the Giants a lot of lineups that they could play around with, but I'd imagine most (or all) of his time would be spent behind the plate, and giving Posey some much needed rest. Either way, extra versatility never hurt anyone. 

G. Conclusion & Prediction
While there is room for doubt when it comes to the Giants, I'm incredibly eager for this next baseball season to start. San Francisco has made a ton of improvement on paper, but at the end of the day that doesn't mean anything until they take the diamond. Because it's an even year people are quick to glance at the roster and declare them World Series champions, although that doesn't mean they won't be facing adversity.

The division is going to be tough. Los Angeles has gotten a lot of negative reviews because they didn't take advantage of their top dollar market and elected to sign value players instead. Despite what they say, I stand by the notion that the Dodgers did a phenomenal job in filling out their rotation. When it looked like they weren't going to land any big name pitcher, they signed Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda, plus retained Brett Anderson's services. Another factor people keep forgetting is that Hyun-Jin Ryu is bound to return from injury as a fifth starter. All of these pitchers are overqualified for their role on this team. On top of that, Corey Seager will be their Opening Day shortstop and his potential is through the roof. This team is better than they are given credit for and it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they won the Division Title for a fourth straight year. The other N.L. West team that's had a big off-season are the Diamondbacks. Since signing Zack Greinke and trading for Shelby Miller, Arizona now boasts one of the best 1-2 punches in the game. Add that to an already potent offense from a year ago and their season looks promising. I do question why this team acquired Jean Segura, but he was an All-Star only a couple of years back and is currently only 25 years old. It's safe to say that he still has upside.

Side Note:
I'm always scared of possibly jinxing my team, which is why I hate making predictions, but I think it worked out in my favor the last time I tried  (NBA Playoff Prediction). I'm going to try my luck and say that the Giants' ceiling will be winning the division title and hitting the century mark in wins (something the Giants haven't accomplished since 2003) and their floor being a secured Wild Card spot and around ~88 wins.   
Another side note: The Office is easily one of the best shows of all-time.
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