The most popular World Series picks entering the 2014 MLB season were the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays. It was a juicy matchup featuring two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. The National League's Dodgers had the biggest payroll in baseball. They played in one of the largest markets in the country and were set to have a plethora of nationally televised games. They had arguably the most talented roster in the league, with stars like Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig. The American League's Rays, on the other hand, had one of the lowest payrolls. But they had a tremendous front office which developed and acquired young talent. Joe Maddon was recognized as one of the best managers in the game, known for his analytical approach, but also his wacky antics to maintain a fun and loose clubhouse. The Rays didn't have a terrific offense, but they consistently had some of the best pitching and defense in baseball. This was supposed to be the year they would return to the Fall Classic. Most predicted talent to prevail and had the Dodgers winning it all. And if pundits weren't picking either of those teams to win it all, they were going with the Washington Nationals or the Detroit Tigers. Almost everyone agreed the talented Nationals had significantly underachieved the previous year. And the Tigers had consistently been one of the best teams in baseball over the last few seasons. Surely, they would find a way to translate their regular season success into a championship one of these years. But as we get closer to the All-Star break, the two teams that have separated themselves from the pack don't include any of the clubs mentioned above. The best baseball is coming out of the Bay Area, where both the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics have made their presence felt.
As of June 9th, San Francisco owns the best record in the majors, sporting a very impressive 42-21 record, and in the process creating the largest division lead in the league over those World Series bound Dodgers, 9.5 games back, and barely over .500. The Giants have a terrific +65 run differential and have played almost as well on the road as they have at home. The club that won the World Series in 2010 and 2012 looks like they have a great chance of doing it again in another even numbered year, but how did they turn it around after a disappointing 2013 campaign? The answer is three rather simple free agent additions, less bad breaks, and rest.
Let's start by addressing the misfortune aspect. The 2013 season for the Giants, like the 2011 before it, was severely injury-plagued. One significant injury was that too centerfielder and leadoff hitter Angel Pagan. With Pagan on the roster, the Giants were 44-34 in 2013, but without him they were just 32-54. Could it just be coincidence and small sample size? Maybe, but his presence was more important than one might tend to believe. Since 2012, he is 13th in WAR among centerfielders, despite missing a heavy amount of time with injury. And his 2014 numbers have been terrific. He currently has a .323/.373/.433 slashline to go along with 11 stolen bases and above average defense at an important position. Another key piece to go down was starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong.
Vogelsong had already ruined his rhythm by altering his routine, after electing to pitch for team USA in the World Baseball Classic. There has been a pattern of poor numbers and injuries following World Baseball Classic participation, and Vogelsong was no exception to the poor numbers part, pitching terribly for the first quarter of the season. And just when it looked like he was experiencing a turnaround, he was hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured right hand, causing him to miss significant time. San Francisco didn't have the depth to deal with an injury like this last year, with Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito struggling mightily. Temporary replacements in the rotation like Mike Kickham and Eric Surkamp were horrendous to say the least. But in 2014, Vogelsong didn't skip spring training and had a chance to build up arm strength at a normal pace. It's led to a stellar 3.39 ERA to begin this season, similar to the All Star numbers he was putting up at the start of his 2012 campaign and terrific for a team's number 5 starter. While Pagan and Vogelsong were the two big names who missed multiple months, there were several key injuries to the bullpen and the bench as well. In addition to the health factor, the offense didn't live up to expectations.
Buster Posey, coming off an MVP season, struggled during the second half. Pablo Sandoval, likely due to his own share of injuries, lost his ability to hit for power. Marco Scutaro could not come close to replicating the postseason success that had led to his hefty contract into regular season production; he too found himself injured towards the end of the year, and has remained out of the lineup since. Although he started off in one of the worst slumps of his career, Sandoval is back to his regular self, and he's hitting for power, with a .382 batting average, .662 slugging percentage, and 1.047 OPS in a recent 18 game stretch. Posey, who was been showing signs of getting out of his own slump recently, put on 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason to keep his legs from getting the better of him like they did last year. He also will get plenty of rest and reps at first base when Brandon Belt returns, and his bat should be what we're used to seeing going forward. Meanwhile, Scutaro's replacement, and two other additions are the other reasons for the Giant's 2014 success.
When you look at Brandon Hicks' .188 batting average, it doesn't exactly leave you impressed, but he's been just as big to the Giant's success as anyone else. With a healthy on base percentage, 8 home runs on the year, and terrific defense at second base, Hicks has quietly led some in the organization to question whether Scutaro should indeed get the starting job back when and if he returns this year. Pretty good for a spring training non-roster invitee.
The other offensive free agent the Giants signed was outfielder Michael Morse. While many were skeptical of the move, given Morse's atrocious defensive metrics, and his overall poor offensive year for the Mariners and Orioles, his bat has been everything the Giants were hoping for. He ranks third in isolated power in the National League and has already clubbed 13 home runs this season. To put that in perspective, last year's left fielders (primarily Gregor Blanco) combined to hit only 5 all year. His ability to play first base has also proven to be valuable after the injury to Brandon Belt forced him to be placed on the disabled list. While the metrics still say Morse's defense is awful, the eye test says he's hasn't been all that bad, and the offensive numbers have more than made up for it.
The final key piece the Giants signed was veteran starting pitcher Tim Hudson, and he's been exceptional. With a 1.97 ERA, a healthy 2.92 FIP, and 82 innings pitched already, this signing could not have worked out more perfectly so far. Hudson has commanded the strike zone beautifully and been very efficient with his pitches. He's gone deep into ball games, allowed very few home runs, and has already posted a 1.4 WAR.
With the odds currently at 96.3%, the Giants seemed poised to make a return to the postseason, likely as division winners. With a potent lineup that can hit for power and has some speed at the top, a solid rotation, and a terrific bullpen which could once again feature Tim Lincecum in the role of super reliever, the dream of winning a third championship in six years has gone from wishful thinking to true possibility.
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| Michael Morse has been a key part of the Giant's success this season |
As of June 9th, San Francisco owns the best record in the majors, sporting a very impressive 42-21 record, and in the process creating the largest division lead in the league over those World Series bound Dodgers, 9.5 games back, and barely over .500. The Giants have a terrific +65 run differential and have played almost as well on the road as they have at home. The club that won the World Series in 2010 and 2012 looks like they have a great chance of doing it again in another even numbered year, but how did they turn it around after a disappointing 2013 campaign? The answer is three rather simple free agent additions, less bad breaks, and rest.
Let's start by addressing the misfortune aspect. The 2013 season for the Giants, like the 2011 before it, was severely injury-plagued. One significant injury was that too centerfielder and leadoff hitter Angel Pagan. With Pagan on the roster, the Giants were 44-34 in 2013, but without him they were just 32-54. Could it just be coincidence and small sample size? Maybe, but his presence was more important than one might tend to believe. Since 2012, he is 13th in WAR among centerfielders, despite missing a heavy amount of time with injury. And his 2014 numbers have been terrific. He currently has a .323/.373/.433 slashline to go along with 11 stolen bases and above average defense at an important position. Another key piece to go down was starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong.
Vogelsong had already ruined his rhythm by altering his routine, after electing to pitch for team USA in the World Baseball Classic. There has been a pattern of poor numbers and injuries following World Baseball Classic participation, and Vogelsong was no exception to the poor numbers part, pitching terribly for the first quarter of the season. And just when it looked like he was experiencing a turnaround, he was hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured right hand, causing him to miss significant time. San Francisco didn't have the depth to deal with an injury like this last year, with Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito struggling mightily. Temporary replacements in the rotation like Mike Kickham and Eric Surkamp were horrendous to say the least. But in 2014, Vogelsong didn't skip spring training and had a chance to build up arm strength at a normal pace. It's led to a stellar 3.39 ERA to begin this season, similar to the All Star numbers he was putting up at the start of his 2012 campaign and terrific for a team's number 5 starter. While Pagan and Vogelsong were the two big names who missed multiple months, there were several key injuries to the bullpen and the bench as well. In addition to the health factor, the offense didn't live up to expectations.
Buster Posey, coming off an MVP season, struggled during the second half. Pablo Sandoval, likely due to his own share of injuries, lost his ability to hit for power. Marco Scutaro could not come close to replicating the postseason success that had led to his hefty contract into regular season production; he too found himself injured towards the end of the year, and has remained out of the lineup since. Although he started off in one of the worst slumps of his career, Sandoval is back to his regular self, and he's hitting for power, with a .382 batting average, .662 slugging percentage, and 1.047 OPS in a recent 18 game stretch. Posey, who was been showing signs of getting out of his own slump recently, put on 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason to keep his legs from getting the better of him like they did last year. He also will get plenty of rest and reps at first base when Brandon Belt returns, and his bat should be what we're used to seeing going forward. Meanwhile, Scutaro's replacement, and two other additions are the other reasons for the Giant's 2014 success.
When you look at Brandon Hicks' .188 batting average, it doesn't exactly leave you impressed, but he's been just as big to the Giant's success as anyone else. With a healthy on base percentage, 8 home runs on the year, and terrific defense at second base, Hicks has quietly led some in the organization to question whether Scutaro should indeed get the starting job back when and if he returns this year. Pretty good for a spring training non-roster invitee.
The other offensive free agent the Giants signed was outfielder Michael Morse. While many were skeptical of the move, given Morse's atrocious defensive metrics, and his overall poor offensive year for the Mariners and Orioles, his bat has been everything the Giants were hoping for. He ranks third in isolated power in the National League and has already clubbed 13 home runs this season. To put that in perspective, last year's left fielders (primarily Gregor Blanco) combined to hit only 5 all year. His ability to play first base has also proven to be valuable after the injury to Brandon Belt forced him to be placed on the disabled list. While the metrics still say Morse's defense is awful, the eye test says he's hasn't been all that bad, and the offensive numbers have more than made up for it.
The final key piece the Giants signed was veteran starting pitcher Tim Hudson, and he's been exceptional. With a 1.97 ERA, a healthy 2.92 FIP, and 82 innings pitched already, this signing could not have worked out more perfectly so far. Hudson has commanded the strike zone beautifully and been very efficient with his pitches. He's gone deep into ball games, allowed very few home runs, and has already posted a 1.4 WAR.
With the odds currently at 96.3%, the Giants seemed poised to make a return to the postseason, likely as division winners. With a potent lineup that can hit for power and has some speed at the top, a solid rotation, and a terrific bullpen which could once again feature Tim Lincecum in the role of super reliever, the dream of winning a third championship in six years has gone from wishful thinking to true possibility.
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