Robinson Cano is a superstar second baseman with perhaps the most power of any middle infielder, but someone who can also hit for average and get on base at a high rate. He's still in his prime and if he stays healthy, he can be an absolutely dynamic part of a team's lineup. Shouldn't everybody be interested in signing him? Well, yes, if they could afford him. Rumor has it Cano is seeking a 10 year deal worth up to $305 million, with the help of his rapper turned sports agent, Jay-Z. Odds are he's not going to get a contract close to these ridiculous figures, but the price is going to be high, nonetheless. In the end, a team, most likely the Yankees, is going to give him a long-term deal, probably worth over $200 million, and even though Cano will be worth it towards the beginning of the contract, he almost certainly will be overpaid towards the end. Second basemen tend to decline at an earlier age than almost any position, and we've already seen the risk of handing out long term contracts to players over age 30. Teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, however, are fifty times richer than Jay Gastby and Tom Buchanan, so they don't really care what kind of salary their players are earning. But what do the 28 other teams do, especially clubs who can't get fans through the door and are working with owners who aren't willing to increase the payroll? This brings us to a few players who are being overlooked because of varying factors, but could pay dividends if a team is willing to give them a chance.
Halladay is an older player, coming off an injury, so it's easy to see why the market for him isn't nearly what it would have been just 2 years ago. The 36 year old underwent shoulder surgery last season, which sidelined him from pitching for most of the year. His fastball is declining in velocity, and his ERA was shockingly high in starts both before and after the surgery. But Halladay has 2 Cy Youngs, multiple no-hitters, and 2000 strikeouts under his belt. Even during his best years, Halladay got hitters out with deceiving movement and precise location, so it's not inconceivable to think that Halladay can still be an effective starter at the back-end of someone's rotation.
Dan Haren is not as old as Roy Halladay, nor is he coming off a significant injury. To put it bluntly, he just flat-out sucked in 2013. In fact, he had the 8th worst ERA in the entire league. So a guy like this can only get better, right? Maybe. Haren is, after all, a three time all star. The second half of 2013 was much kinder to him than the first half of 2013, and despite his struggles, he still maintained an excellent strikeout to walk ratio throughout last season. It seems as if Haren rebounded and found his groove after a DL stint he used mostly to clear his head and simplify things for himself. He wasn't the Haren of old, but he certainly showed signs that he could take that step in 2014.
Perhaps the most expensive player on this list, Corey Hart could still be a bargain for some team in 2014. Coming off knee surgery will certainly hurt his value, but Hart's production in previous years and lack of previous injuries will make him an attractive option in a thin outfield market. He's a two time all-star, but in the years he doesn't make the cut, he's always on the fringe. This is because his production is consistent. Previously a 20/20 guy, the 31 year old Hart has transformed into a power hitter in recent years, boosting his home run output to 31 and 30 in 2010 and 2012 (He hit 26 in 2011 despite missing a month of play). Hart can drive in runs for a team, and is probably the only player on this list who could command a contract of more than 2 years, but the team that signs him will likely getting value for the price they pay.
I thought Tim Hudson was done when he left the Oakland A's. After all, Barry Zito was terrible for the Giants until that magical postseason run of 2012, and before you could even get used to Mark Mulder in a Cardinals uniform, he was on ESPN, sitting next to Barry Larkin on Baseball Tonight. But Hudson was the comeback kid. His first full season with the Braves in 2006 was disappointing, but he bounced back with a superb season in 2007. In 2008, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which made me even more skeptical he'd ever return to his previous form, but looking at his performance from 2009-2013, it's as if he hasn't aged a bit. A bit of a freak accident on the field led to an ankle fracture for Hudson in July, causing him to miss the rest of the season. He also happens to be the oldest player on list at 38. But Hudson is the ageless wonder and it wouldn't be surprising if he came back from this injury just like he did from his Tommy John surgery, and has another good season in 2014.
I happen to have Josh Johnson's autograph. He signed a baseball for me at AT&T Park a few years ago. Florida Marlins players were so kind and open to signing things for opposing team's fans, it was as if they didn't have any fans of their own, oh wait... Jokes about Marlins fans (or lack thereof) aside, I was pretty excited to get a Johnson autograph. He was a very good pitcher. In fact, the very next year he was a serious candidate to start the All Star game for the National League, and I thought the value of my baseball was skyrocketing. This guy had a legitimate chance to be a Cy Young award winner for years to come. Unfortunately, injuries got the best of him. And it's not just one problem area either, these things show up all over the place. He's like the Troy Tulowitzki of pitchers, except he's not that young anymore and is injured more constantly. That is why there isn't going to be heavy price tag on Johnson, and that price tag is why some team should take a chance on him. The talent is certainly there, and with a little bit of injury luck, he could be a steal.
Recently, if you ask analysts to name an underrated player in the MLB, the conventional name is Billy Butler. Butler puts up great numbers each year, only to be ignored by the media nationwide because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, a losing team in a small market. Before Butler though, the same could have been said about Paul Konerko. Despite his crucial grand slam in the 2005 World Series, Konerko has garnered little attention since then, despite having seasons of 35, 31, 39, and again 31 home runs. He's had six all star appearances, and has quietly reached 2,000 hits as well as 400 home runs in his career. So why won't there be interest? He appears to be done. At age 37, Konerko is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons, posting a mere 12 home runs, a .244 average, and only a .355 slugging percentage to go with it. This offensive output, along with his mediocre defense, caused Konerko to end the season with a negative WAR. But Konerko is still capable of an offensive renaissance, similar to what Vladimir Guerrero and Lance Berkman were able to do late in their careers. He could certainly help an American League team who needs a designated hitter.
Injuries, injuries, injuries. I haven't heard of a guy suffering multiple concussions in the sport of baseball, especially in the same season. Unfortunately, this is what has troubled Justin Morneau's career, and his play has been declining because of it. But like with the others, Morneau has the capability to return to the form that once made him an all star, and at one point, the American League MVP. Even though he can still play first base, Morneau, like Konerko, would probably be better suited as a full time designated hitter. Maybe focusing on hitting will improve his production, and prevent him suffering further injuries.
The final player on the list is Michael Morse. Morse had a breakout season with the Nationals in 2011, with a .303 average along with 31 home runs, and did relatively well in an injury-shortened season in 2012, with a .292 average and 18 home runs. 2013, however was a disappointment; Morse struggled to adjust to the American League and hit just .215 for the Mariners and Orioles. Playing at Safeco Field for the majority of the season also caused his power numbers to drop, and he finished the season with 13 home runs despite a torrid start. Perhaps Morse can eventually adjust to the American League in 2014, or maybe he returns to the National League and goes back to performing like he did for the Nationals. There's also a chance that last year is the beginning of a tailspin for Morse, and he struggles to ever regain the form he once had. But Morse's power potential and OBP numbers before last season suggest 2013 was a blip and not a trend.
Weirdly enough, the 8 players that are going to be discussed all have last names that fall in the H-M range, but they aren't ranked in a particular order, so we'll discuss them alphabetically, beginning with...
Roy Halladay (SP)
Halladay is an older player, coming off an injury, so it's easy to see why the market for him isn't nearly what it would have been just 2 years ago. The 36 year old underwent shoulder surgery last season, which sidelined him from pitching for most of the year. His fastball is declining in velocity, and his ERA was shockingly high in starts both before and after the surgery. But Halladay has 2 Cy Youngs, multiple no-hitters, and 2000 strikeouts under his belt. Even during his best years, Halladay got hitters out with deceiving movement and precise location, so it's not inconceivable to think that Halladay can still be an effective starter at the back-end of someone's rotation.
Dan Haren (SP)
Corey Hart (OF)
Perhaps the most expensive player on this list, Corey Hart could still be a bargain for some team in 2014. Coming off knee surgery will certainly hurt his value, but Hart's production in previous years and lack of previous injuries will make him an attractive option in a thin outfield market. He's a two time all-star, but in the years he doesn't make the cut, he's always on the fringe. This is because his production is consistent. Previously a 20/20 guy, the 31 year old Hart has transformed into a power hitter in recent years, boosting his home run output to 31 and 30 in 2010 and 2012 (He hit 26 in 2011 despite missing a month of play). Hart can drive in runs for a team, and is probably the only player on this list who could command a contract of more than 2 years, but the team that signs him will likely getting value for the price they pay.
Tim Hudson (SP)
I thought Tim Hudson was done when he left the Oakland A's. After all, Barry Zito was terrible for the Giants until that magical postseason run of 2012, and before you could even get used to Mark Mulder in a Cardinals uniform, he was on ESPN, sitting next to Barry Larkin on Baseball Tonight. But Hudson was the comeback kid. His first full season with the Braves in 2006 was disappointing, but he bounced back with a superb season in 2007. In 2008, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which made me even more skeptical he'd ever return to his previous form, but looking at his performance from 2009-2013, it's as if he hasn't aged a bit. A bit of a freak accident on the field led to an ankle fracture for Hudson in July, causing him to miss the rest of the season. He also happens to be the oldest player on list at 38. But Hudson is the ageless wonder and it wouldn't be surprising if he came back from this injury just like he did from his Tommy John surgery, and has another good season in 2014.
Josh Johnson (SP)
I happen to have Josh Johnson's autograph. He signed a baseball for me at AT&T Park a few years ago. Florida Marlins players were so kind and open to signing things for opposing team's fans, it was as if they didn't have any fans of their own, oh wait... Jokes about Marlins fans (or lack thereof) aside, I was pretty excited to get a Johnson autograph. He was a very good pitcher. In fact, the very next year he was a serious candidate to start the All Star game for the National League, and I thought the value of my baseball was skyrocketing. This guy had a legitimate chance to be a Cy Young award winner for years to come. Unfortunately, injuries got the best of him. And it's not just one problem area either, these things show up all over the place. He's like the Troy Tulowitzki of pitchers, except he's not that young anymore and is injured more constantly. That is why there isn't going to be heavy price tag on Johnson, and that price tag is why some team should take a chance on him. The talent is certainly there, and with a little bit of injury luck, he could be a steal.
Paul Konerko (1B)
Recently, if you ask analysts to name an underrated player in the MLB, the conventional name is Billy Butler. Butler puts up great numbers each year, only to be ignored by the media nationwide because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, a losing team in a small market. Before Butler though, the same could have been said about Paul Konerko. Despite his crucial grand slam in the 2005 World Series, Konerko has garnered little attention since then, despite having seasons of 35, 31, 39, and again 31 home runs. He's had six all star appearances, and has quietly reached 2,000 hits as well as 400 home runs in his career. So why won't there be interest? He appears to be done. At age 37, Konerko is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons, posting a mere 12 home runs, a .244 average, and only a .355 slugging percentage to go with it. This offensive output, along with his mediocre defense, caused Konerko to end the season with a negative WAR. But Konerko is still capable of an offensive renaissance, similar to what Vladimir Guerrero and Lance Berkman were able to do late in their careers. He could certainly help an American League team who needs a designated hitter.
Justin Morneau (1B/OF)
Injuries, injuries, injuries. I haven't heard of a guy suffering multiple concussions in the sport of baseball, especially in the same season. Unfortunately, this is what has troubled Justin Morneau's career, and his play has been declining because of it. But like with the others, Morneau has the capability to return to the form that once made him an all star, and at one point, the American League MVP. Even though he can still play first base, Morneau, like Konerko, would probably be better suited as a full time designated hitter. Maybe focusing on hitting will improve his production, and prevent him suffering further injuries.
Michael Morse (1B/OF)
These 8 players may not pan out. No one would be surprised if Halladay continues to struggle, Johnson experiences another injury, or if Konerko announces his retirement in 2014 because he feels like he's finished, but no one should be surprised if any of them become key contributors for their respective teams and rediscover success. The risk is low because the deals will be short and inexpensive, but the reward is high.
0 comments:
Post a Comment