Hot sports take: the Spurs are a good basketball team. Coming off another championship, marking the fifth NBA championship for head coach Gregg Popovich, San Antonio returns this season with practically the same roster. What makes them so special? Well, they do have arguably three future hall-of-famers in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili1. They also have a rising star in Kawhi Leonard, who broke out as the MVP of last year's Finals against the Miami Heat. But that spectacular run was due in large part to an offensive system that has revolutionized the game. The Spurs, while constantly resting their star players, won 62 games in the regular season, more than any other team. It's because everyone on the roster is on the same page, with exquisite ball movement, screens, and backdoor cuts, which are leading to wide open three-point looks and easy baskets in the paint. Other teams can only dream of playing such a beautiful brand of basketball as a cohesive unit; the Spurs' offense is truly a well-oiled machine. With that said, let's turn our attention to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Currently 0-5, with a tough matchup against Charlotte coming up, the Lakers have the league's worst point differential in this early part of the season. So what's the reason for their poor start? And why do they look even worse than they did last year? It comes down to coaching, shot selection, and Kobe Bryant.
Byron Scott, for reasons unknown, is getting his fourth stint as a head coach in the NBA. What impresses teams enough to hire him is impossible to say. His career winning percentage is .444. The Hornets team he coached in the 2009 playoffs were beaten in game 4 by 58 points, tied for the largest margin of defeat in playoff history. On top of this, he coached a Cavaliers team which endured the longest losing streak in NBA history at 27 games. Despite being known as a defensive coach, Scott's Lakers are currently giving 116.8 points per game. And the offense doesn't get any prettier.
This preseason, Scott went back to prehistoric times, stating that he doesn't believe that three pointers win championships, and suggesting the Lakers would never average more than 15 attempts in a game. Math lesson: 3 is greater than 2. The champion Spurs led the playoffs in three-pointers made. This year, the 6-0 Rockets and 4-0 Golden State Warriors are #1 and #2 in three-pointers made per game and both attempt more than 23 per game. Getting good shots at the rim is obviously ideal, and post play is still necessary, even effective depending on the player, but the NBA has changed. While chucking up contested jumpers is no recipe for success, a solid game-plan that emphasizes spacing and frees up shooters is crucial in today's game. Back to the Lakers, who are attempting 14.6 threes a game and making just 5 a contest. Their shot selection woes, however, go far beyond the lack of three pointers they take.
Math lesson #2: 14 divided by 37 equals roughly 38%. That was the field goal percentage of Kobe Bryant's recent 39 point performance in a loss to the Phoenix Suns. The casual fan, talking heads on the radio, and a reporter or two chalked this up as another good game from Kobe. Among the things you would see on twitter would be justifications such as "He doesn't have a supporting cast." and "I'd rather have him taking shots than anybody else." The problem is, this has already been proven false. Wesley Johnson and Jordan Hill have been starters for both this season as well as last year. The Lakers last season, when using a starting lineup consisting of Kendall Marshall, Jodie Meeks, Wesley Johnson, Ryan Kelly, and Jordan Hill, averaged 103.6 points per 100 possessions. This year's starting lineup, with Kobe Bryant in the lineup, Jeremy Lin replacing Marshall, and Carlos Boozer replacing Kelly, the offensive efficiency has dropped to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions2. Math lesson #3: 103.6 > 99.3. What's causing this drop? Inefficient, contested, fade-away jumpers exclusively from Bryant, which have become a staple of the Lakers' offense.
Kobe is great at making ridiculous shots like this one, but it's not going to win anyone a lot of games, because it's still a bad, contested mid-range jumpshot. Bryant, it seems, is either trying to keep his point totals high, or simply doesn't have any trust in his teammates, even though he has to in order for this team to have any success. Leading the league in scoring doesn't really mean much when you're shooting your teams out of ball games by only going 40% from the field.
With Bryant's poor shot selection, Byron's Scott's lack of coaching, and promising rookie Julius Randle out for the year, the Lakers could see themselves at the very bottom of the Western Conference standings. And with Bryant's gigantic contract taking up any cap space which could be used to sign another superstar, it doesn't look like general manager Mitch Kupchak will be able to turn this situation around until the 2016-17 season. The silver lining for the Lakers could be that tanking this season could mean they get to keep their first round draft pick, which would go to Phoenix if they do not finish in the bottom five of the standings. And with that pick, who knows, maybe they can draft the next Kobe...
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1Based on his statistics, Ginobili may not seem like a hall-of-fame worthy player, but he gets a boost for his contributions and influence as an international player and for being the part of several championships.
2Credit for this statistic goes to Tom Haberstroh, numbers expert and basketball analyst for ESPN. Watch his bi-weekly show TrueHoop TV for more awesome nuggets like the one I borrowed.
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